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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 13, 2012
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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Dec 30 |
$98.83 |
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Jan 3 |
$102.96 |
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Jan 4 |
$103.22 |
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Jan 5 |
$101.82 |
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Jan 6 |
$101.56 |
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Jan 9 |
$101.31 |
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Jan 10 |
$102.24 |
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Jan 11 |
$100.87 |
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Jan 12 |
$99.10 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
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January |
$101.99 |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
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February |
|
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
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March |
|
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
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April |
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$109.67 |
$84.46 |
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May |
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$101.29 |
$74.14 |
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June |
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$99.81 |
$75.39 |
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July |
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$97.43 |
$73.95 |
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August |
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$86.23 |
$77.00 |
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September |
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$86.13 |
$75.55 |
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October |
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$86.10 |
$81.99 |
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November |
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$96.86 |
$84.25 |
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December |
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$98.51 |
$89.09 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Jan 12/12 |
$100.87 |
119.1 |
104.3 |
130.8 |
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Jan 12/11 |
$91.11 |
108.6 |
87.6 |
113.5 |
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YOY Diff. |
+9.76 |
+10.5 |
+16.7 |
+17.3 |
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% Change |
+11% |
+9% |
+19% |
+15% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE”) petroleum inventory
assessment, issued Jan. 11, 2012 reported an increase in U.S. petroleum
inventories. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.9 million
barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels and
distillate product (diesel and heating oil) inventories increased by 3.9
million barrels. The increase in inventories was attributed to
crude inputs and increased refinery production while the implied demand
for petroleum products in the U.S. declined. U.S. Atlantic Coast
distillate product inventory, which includes heating oil, continue to be
below prior year levels (-13.7%).
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+4,958,000 |
-13.48% |
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Gasoline |
+3,610,000 |
+8.5% |
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Distillates |
+3,985,000 |
-13.7% |
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U.S. refinery operable utilization for the period ending Jan. 6, 2012
was reported at 85.6 percent, a slight increase over the previous
week's level.
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2. U.S Economic Highlights:
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MasterCard's
weekly SpendingPulse survey showed U.S. gasoline demand declined 1.4 percent compared with the previous week.
MasterCard reports that gasoline demand for 2011 was down 1.6 percent
from 2010.
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After several months of positive U.S. economic news, this week saw two reports which reversed that trend.
U.S. weekly jobless claims increased to the highest level seen in many weeks
and retail sales numbers for December, 2011 came in weaker than expected.
December retail sales reported were the weakest since May, 2011.
3. Other:
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Tensions in the Middle East between Iran and those countries opposed to its
nuclear program continue to attract media attention. However, some oil analysts suggest that current crude prices do not reflect any premium
pricing associated with this issue.
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Recent government bond auctions in Spain and Italy have showed
positive results leading some analysts to suggest that Europe may come
through its debt situation.
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Tensions in Nigeria over that country's decision to eliminate domestic
fuel subsidies has caused some concern over oil supply from that
country. Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, has a highly
sought after light sweet crude.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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