MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 January 13, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jan 3

 $ 52.33

$ 55.47
 

Jan 4

 $ 53.26

$56.46
 

Jan 5

 $ 53.76

$ 56.89
 

Jan 6

 $ 53.99

$ 57.10
 

Jan 9

 $ 51.96

$ 54.94
 

Jan 10

 $ 50.82

$ 53.64
 

Jan 11

 $ 52.25

$ 55.10
 

Jan 12

 $ 53.01

$ 56.01
 

 

  

 
 Average Brent Crude for January: $ 55.70.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.67  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February    $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March    $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April    $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May    $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June    $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July    $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jan 12, 2017 $ 53.01 115.0 81.9 120.2
Jan 12, 2016 $ 30.44 95.9 70.6 101.6
YOY Diff. +22.57 +19.1 +11.3 +18.6
% Change +74.1% +19.9% +16.0% +18.3%

Commentary:


Buoyed by the commitment of OPEC member countries to curb global supply, both Brent and WTI crude futures remained relatively consistent in price over the first two weeks of January, with Brent and WTI averaging $55.66 and $52.62 respectively over the period.  Renewed interest in US domestic drilling activity did temporarily weaken market pricing  but the combination of the prospect of reduced global production combined with business confidence with the new Trump led US Government is lending support to crude market pricing in recent days.

Refined production pricing has been characterized by a degree of fluctuation.  After strong Christmas holiday demand and heightened exports to  Latin America which served to escalate wholesale gasoline pricing, reduced post Christmas demand and rising inventories have combined to suppress pricing as of late.  Milder winter weather thus far has served to dampen wholesale distillate pricing.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued January 11, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 4,097,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 5,023,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.  Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting period by 5,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories increased by 8,356,000 barrels.  


US refinery utilization rates increased by 1.6% to 93.6% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +4,097,000 +7.1%

Gasoline

 +5,023,000      0%

Distillates

 +8,356,000 +2.7%
Source: DOE January 11, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate