MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 14, 2009

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


Pump Price Comparison:
As of January 13.
  Gasoline Diesel Furnace Oil
  Pump
Price
Diff.

Ex. Tax

Diff. Pump
Price
Diff.

Ex. Tax

Diff. Pump
Price
Diff.

Ex. Tax

Diff.
Charlottetown 74.3 - 46.8 - 96.1 - 68.3 - 73.8 - 70.3 -
Moncton 75.3 +1.0 45.9 -0.9 100.3 +4.2 67.8 -0.5 82.5 +8.7 73.0 +2.7
Halifax 77.9 +3.6 43.4 -3.4 96.2 +0.1 65.7 -2.6 77.2 +3.4 73.5 +3.2
Fredericton 74.5 +0.1 45.2 -1.6 100.1 +4.0 67.7 -0.6 82.4 +8.6 72.9 +2.6
St. John's 85.9 +11.6 49.5 +2.7 98.7 +2.6 66.8 -1.5 77.4 +3.6 68.5 -1.8

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
Jan. 1 - Jan. 2 $46.34 Jan. 5 $48.81
Jan. 6 $48.58 Jan. 7 $42.63 Jan. 8 $41.70
Jan. 9 $40.83 Jan. 12 $37.59 Jan. 13 $37.78

 
  Average Average Average
  2009 2008 2007
January $43.03 $93.06 $54.43
February   $95.34 $59.42
March   $105.62 $60.86
April   $110.72 $64.08
May   $124.98 $63.54
June   $134.02 $67.46
July   $134.29 $73.80
August   $116.81 $72.17
September   $104.27 $79.52
October   $76.72 $85.19
November   $57.44 $94.95
December   $42.17 $91.24

Commentary:


The significant disconnect between crude and refined product New York Harbour trading values observed since the beginning of the year continues to create a situation where refined products prices are increasing within the context of falling crude prices. The situation oddly enough appears to be related to reduced overall demand, a condition which in itself should result in reduced prices. Within the New York Harbour market at the moment however, refiners in an attempt to unload surplus product are offering future months supply at discounted prices provided that the orders are taken possession of now. This presumably temporary condition has effectively taken a substantial portion of surplus product off of the market creating at the same time an upward pressure on current market prices. This market contango position as it is referred to by industry officials should be of temporary duration but while it lasts refined product prices will track distinctly different from crude prices.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jan. 10/09       $40.83 74.3 70.9 96.1
Jan. 10/08 $93.71 108.3 88.7 115.1
YOY Diff. 52.88 34.0 17.8 19.0
% Change 56% 31% 20% 17%

 


1.  DOE Report - Not Available

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
Crude    
Gasoline    
Distillates    

2. Demand Statistics:


U.S. gasoline consumption fell 4.1% last week. The four week moving average fell 3.6% and has not gained since last February. Gasoline consumption was down 3.2% in 2008 after rising 1% in 2007 and 1.2% in 2006.


3.  Economic News:


• The U.S. Labor Dept reported that the U.S. economy lost 524,000 jobs in December and 2.6 million jobs for all of 2008. The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 7.2%, the highest since 1993.
• The Detroit Three automakers have announced extended holiday shutdowns. Chrysler has said it is closing all 30 of its North American manufacturing plants for four weeks because of slumping sales; Ford will shut 10 North American assembly plants for an extra week in January and General Motors will temporarily close 20 factories to cut vehicle production.
• This past Friday, KB Home, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, reported sales fell 56% in the fourth quarter compared with last year.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil