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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 14, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Pump
Price Comparison:
As of January 13. |
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Gasoline |
Diesel |
Furnace Oil |
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Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax |
Diff. |
Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax |
Diff. |
Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax |
Diff. |
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Charlottetown |
74.3 |
- |
46.8 |
- |
96.1 |
- |
68.3 |
- |
73.8 |
- |
70.3 |
- |
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Moncton |
75.3 |
+1.0 |
45.9 |
-0.9 |
100.3 |
+4.2 |
67.8 |
-0.5 |
82.5 |
+8.7 |
73.0 |
+2.7 |
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Halifax |
77.9 |
+3.6 |
43.4 |
-3.4 |
96.2 |
+0.1 |
65.7 |
-2.6 |
77.2 |
+3.4 |
73.5 |
+3.2 |
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Fredericton |
74.5 |
+0.1 |
45.2 |
-1.6 |
100.1 |
+4.0 |
67.7 |
-0.6 |
82.4 |
+8.6 |
72.9 |
+2.6 |
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St. John's |
85.9 |
+11.6 |
49.5 |
+2.7 |
98.7 |
+2.6 |
66.8 |
-1.5 |
77.4 |
+3.6 |
68.5 |
-1.8 |
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Jan. 1 |
- |
Jan. 2 |
$46.34 |
Jan. 5 |
$48.81 |
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Jan. 6 |
$48.58 |
Jan. 7 |
$42.63 |
Jan. 8 |
$41.70 |
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Jan. 9 |
$40.83 |
Jan. 12 |
$37.59 |
Jan. 13 |
$37.78 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
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January |
$43.03 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
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February |
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$95.34 |
$59.42 |
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March |
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$105.62 |
$60.86 |
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April |
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$110.72 |
$64.08 |
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May |
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$124.98 |
$63.54 |
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June |
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$134.02 |
$67.46 |
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July |
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$134.29 |
$73.80 |
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August |
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$116.81 |
$72.17 |
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September |
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$104.27 |
$79.52 |
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October |
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$76.72 |
$85.19 |
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November |
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$57.44 |
$94.95 |
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December |
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$42.17 |
$91.24 |
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Commentary: |
The significant disconnect
between crude and refined product New York Harbour trading
values observed since the beginning of the year continues to
create a situation where refined products prices are increasing
within the context of falling crude prices. The situation oddly
enough appears to be related to reduced overall demand, a
condition which in itself should result in reduced prices.
Within the New York Harbour market at the moment however,
refiners in an attempt to unload surplus product are offering
future months supply at discounted prices provided that the
orders are taken possession of now. This presumably temporary
condition has effectively taken a substantial portion of surplus
product off of the market creating at the same time an upward
pressure on current market prices. This market contango position
as it is referred to by industry officials should be of
temporary duration but while it lasts refined product prices
will track distinctly different from crude prices.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Jan. 10/09 |
$40.83 |
74.3 |
70.9 |
96.1 |
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Jan. 10/08 |
$93.71 |
108.3 |
88.7 |
115.1 |
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YOY Diff. |
52.88 |
34.0 |
17.8 |
19.0 |
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% Change |
56% |
31% |
20% |
17% |
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1. DOE Report - Not Available |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over
Year |
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Crude |
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Gasoline |
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Distillates |
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2. Demand Statistics: |
U.S.
gasoline consumption fell 4.1% last week. The four week moving average
fell 3.6% and has not gained since last February. Gasoline consumption
was down 3.2% in 2008 after rising 1% in 2007 and 1.2% in 2006.
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3.
Economic News: |
• The U.S. Labor Dept reported that the U.S. economy lost 524,000 jobs
in December and 2.6 million jobs for all of 2008. The nation's
unemployment rate jumped to 7.2%, the highest since 1993.
• The Detroit Three automakers have announced extended holiday
shutdowns. Chrysler has said it is closing all 30 of its North American
manufacturing plants for four weeks because of slumping sales; Ford will
shut 10 North American assembly plants for an extra week in January and
General Motors will temporarily close 20 factories to cut vehicle
production.
• This past Friday, KB Home, one of the nation's largest homebuilders,
reported sales fell 56% in the fourth quarter compared with last year.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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