MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 14, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Dec 31

$91.82
 

Jan 2

$93.12
 

Jan 3

$92.92
 

Jan 4

$93.09
 

Jan 7

$93.19
 

Jan 8

$93.15
 

Jan 9

$93.10
 

Jan 10

$93.82
 

Jan 11

$93.56
 Average Brent Crude for December: $111.69
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 93.24  $100.51  $89.44
February    $102.26  $88.83
March    $106.36  $102.74
April    $103.18  $109.67
May    $ 95.47  $101.29
June    $ 82.28  $96.40
July    $ 87.93  $97.43
August    $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jan 11/13 $ 93.56 119.9 106.3 131.7
Jan 11/12 $100.87 115.9 99.3 126.6
YOY Diff. - 7.31 +4.0 +7.0 +5.1
% Change -7.2% +3.5% +7% +4.0%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


The U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued Jan 9, 2013 reported an increase in U.S. crude stocks of 1.314 million barrels, primarily the result of increased imports.  U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 7.412 million barrels.  The increase was attributed to a sharp drop in demand.  U.S. distillate stocks increased by 6.777 million barrels.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 +1,314,000 +7.9%
 

Gasoline

 +7,412,000 +4.1%
 

 Distillates

 +6,777,000 -11.4%
  U.S. refinery utilization declined by 1.3% to 89.1%.
Source: DOE January 9, 2013

2.  Item of Interest:
 

  • Mastercard states gasoline demand decreased by 3.5 percent last week over the previous week and demand was 2.8 percent below prior year levels for the same weekly period.  U.S. gasoline prices had been on the rise by 3 cents/gallon during the Mastercard reporting period ending Jan. 4, 2013.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate