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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 14, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
|
WTI |
Brent |
|
Jan 2 |
$ 95.44 |
$107.78 |
|
Jan 3 |
$ 93.96 |
$106.89 |
|
Jan 6 |
$ 93.43 |
$106.73 |
|
Jan 7 |
$ 93.67 |
$107.35 |
|
Jan 8 |
$ 92.33 |
$107.15 |
|
Jan 9 |
$ 91.66 |
$106.39 |
|
Jan 10 |
$ 92.72 |
$107.25 |
|
Jan 13 |
$ 91.80 |
$106.75 |
Average
Brent Crude for December:
$107.04. |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
January |
$ 93.13 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
February |
|
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
March |
|
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
April |
|
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
May |
|
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
June |
|
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
July |
|
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
September |
|
$108.47 |
$
94.74 |
October |
|
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
November |
|
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Jan 10/14 |
$ 92.72 |
133.5 |
115.3 |
151.7 |
Jan 10/13 |
$ 93.82 |
119.9 |
106.3 |
131.7 |
YOY Diff. |
-1.1 |
+13.6 |
+9.0 |
+20.0 |
% Change |
-1.2% |
+11.3% |
+8.5% |
+15.2% |
|
|
Commentary: |
Both WTI and Brent
crude pricing have retreated relatively significantly since
December 31 with WTI reduced by $5.70 per barrel (5.8%) and
Brent $3.55 (3.2%). Increased refined product inventories,
indications of reduced product demand, the resumption of
Libyan crude production and the fluctuation observed in the
U.S. dollar are all contributing factors.
A
weather related reduction in overall gasoline consumption
should translate into a continued downward pressure on
gasoline prices while builds in distillate inventories
should serve to stabilize diesel and furnace oil pricing
over the coming two-week period.
Refined product pricing has been impacted as of late by
increased inventory levels generated largely as the result
of increased refinery utilization coupled with reduced
demand resulting from, in the case of gasoline, bad driving
weather, and in the case of heating oil, a recent trend of
milder weather.
A
number of factors, however, have conspired to exert
significant upward pressure on propane prices. The
closure of the Imperial refinery this past fall, the recent
storm related closure of the Come-By-Chance refinery in
Newfoundland, production issues associated with the Sable
Island gas platforms, Eastern Canadian rail shipment issues
coupled with record crop drying and overseas demand for
propane have dramatically impacted propane wholesale rack
pricing in recent weeks.
|
Economic Data: |
|
The US Energy Department
("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued
January 8, 2014, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of
2,680,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
increased by 6,240,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting
period by 619,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories increased by 5,830,000 barrels.
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year % Change |
|
Crude |
-2,680,000 |
-0.9% |
|
Gasoline |
+6,240,000 |
-2.6% |
|
Distillates |
+5,830,000 |
-4.4% |
|
Source: DOE January 8, 2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
|