MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 14, 2014

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 



Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jan 2

$ 95.44

$107.78

 

Jan 3

$ 93.96

$106.89

 

Jan 6

$ 93.43

$106.73

 

Jan 7

$ 93.67

$107.35

 

Jan 8

$ 92.33

$107.15

 

Jan 9

$ 91.66

$106.39

 

Jan 10

$ 92.72

$107.25

 

Jan 13

$ 91.80

$106.75

 Average Brent Crude for December: $107.04.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2014 2013 2012
January  $ 93.13  $ 94.70  $100.51
February    $ 95.50  $102.26
March    $ 92.73  $106.36
April    $ 89.59  $103.18
May    $ 94.93  $ 95.47
June    $ 95.76  $ 82.28
July    $104.68  $ 87.93
August    $106.49  $ 94.05
September    $108.47  $ 94.74
October    $100.74  $ 89.72
November    $ 94.00  $ 85.87
December    $ 97.87  $ 88.06
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jan 10/14 $ 92.72 133.5 115.3 151.7
Jan 10/13 $ 93.82 119.9 106.3 131.7
YOY Diff. -1.1 +13.6 +9.0 +20.0
% Change -1.2% +11.3% +8.5% +15.2%

Commentary:


Both WTI and Brent crude pricing have retreated relatively significantly since December 31 with WTI reduced by $5.70 per barrel (5.8%) and Brent $3.55 (3.2%). Increased refined product inventories, indications of reduced product demand, the resumption of Libyan crude production and the fluctuation observed in the U.S. dollar are all contributing factors.

A weather related reduction in overall gasoline consumption should translate into a continued downward pressure on gasoline prices while builds in distillate inventories should serve to stabilize diesel and furnace oil pricing over the coming two-week period.

Refined product pricing has been impacted as of late by increased inventory levels generated largely as the result of increased refinery utilization coupled with reduced demand resulting from, in the case of gasoline, bad driving weather, and in the case of heating oil, a recent trend of milder weather.

A number of factors, however, have conspired to exert significant upward pressure on propane prices.  The closure of the Imperial refinery this past fall, the recent storm related closure of the Come-By-Chance refinery in Newfoundland, production issues associated with the Sable Island gas platforms, Eastern Canadian rail shipment issues coupled with record crop drying and overseas demand for propane have dramatically impacted propane wholesale rack pricing in recent weeks.


Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued January 8, 2014, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 2,680,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 6,240,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period by 619,000 b/d.

US distillate inventories increased by 5,830,000 barrels.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

 

Crude

-2,680,000 -0.9%
 

Gasoline

+6,240,000 -2.6%
 

Distillates

+5,830,000 -4.4%
Source: DOE January 8, 2014

 

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate