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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 30, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Jan 16 |
$ 48.69 |
$ 50.17 |
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Jan 20 |
$ 46.39 |
$ 47.99 |
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Jan 21 |
$ 47.78 |
$ 49.03 |
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Jan 22 |
$ 46.31 |
$ 48.52 |
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Jan 23 |
$ 45.59 |
$
48.79 |
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Jan 26 |
$ 45.15 |
$ 48.16 |
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Jan 27 |
$ 46.23 |
$ 49.60 |
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Jan 28 |
$ 44.45 |
$ 48.47 |
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Jan 29 |
$ 44.53 |
$ 49.13 |
Average
Brent Crude for January:
$ 49.64. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
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January |
$ 47.28 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
|
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
|
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
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$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
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$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
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$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
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$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
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$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
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$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
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$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
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$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
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$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Jan 29/15 |
$ 44.53 |
88.7 |
80.0 |
112.6 |
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Jan 29/14 |
$ 97.36 |
131.0 |
113.3 |
149.1 |
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YOY Diff. |
-52.83 |
-42.3 |
-33.3 |
-36.5 |
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% Change |
-54.3% |
-32.3% |
-29.4% |
-24.5% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude oil prices continue to languish in the mid to low
$40.00 per barrel range as crude markets remain
characterized by surplus inventory levels, less than robust
demand and adequately supplied markets. A contango pricing
market in New York Harbour and a fire at a large 300,000 bpd
refinery in New Jersey have pressured gasoline prices as of
late. Recent lower gasoline trading prices have served to
reduce the attraction of European cargoes so restoration of
traditional gasoline margins may take some time to
accomplish. Colder winter weather as of late has served to
pressure distillate wholesale pricing. The erosion of the
value of the Canadian vs the U.S. dollar is also having a
significant impact on across the board wholesale petroleum
product pricing, accounting for approximately 4-5 cents per
litre.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued January 28, 2015, reported an increase in US crude stocks
of 8,900,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 2,600,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting
period by 171,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories decreased by 3,900,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization rates increased by 2.5% to
88.0% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+8,900,000 |
+13.7% |
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Gasoline |
-2,600,000 |
+1.7% |
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Distillates |
-3,900,000 |
+14.2% |
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Source: DOE January 28, 2015 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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