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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 31, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Jan 18 |
$91.38 |
Jan 19 |
$90.86 |
Jan 20 |
$88.86 |
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Jan 21 |
$89.11 |
Jan 24 |
$87.87 |
Jan 25 |
$86.19 |
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Jan 26 |
$87.33 |
Jan 27 |
$85.64 |
Jan 28 |
$89.34 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
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$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
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$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
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$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
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$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
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$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
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$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
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$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
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$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
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$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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Commentary: |
US crude stocks rose 4.836 million barrels, which was greater than
expected, mainly attributed to a rise in imports and a decrease in
refinery throughput. US crude stocks are 19.669 million barrels above
the five year average and 13.888 million barrels above year ago levels
(4.25%). Refined product consumption declined consistent with reduced
refinery throughput. Gasoline demand decreased 144,000 million barrels
from last week which is a reflection of severe winter storms and general
seasonal reductions. The decline in gasoline demand resulted in a build
in inventories of 2.404 million barrels. Distillate inventories declined
but below expectations at 140,000 barrels. A decline in middle
distillates inventory (heating fuel – consistent with seasonal trends)
was offset by a build in ULSD inventories which rose by 2.415 million
barrels.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Jan 28/11 |
$89.34 |
108.6 |
89.6 |
114.6 |
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Jan 28/10 |
$73.64 |
102.4 |
80.0 |
104.8 |
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YOY Diff. |
+15.70 |
+6.2 |
+9.6 |
+9.8 |
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% Change |
+21% |
+6% |
+12% |
+9% |
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1. DOE Report: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+4,836,000 |
+4.25% |
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Gasoline |
+2,404,000 |
+1.04% |
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Distillates |
-140,000 |
+0.0% |
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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Some signals in the past week on the state of the US economy:
• US GDP growth accelerated in the final three months of 2010 as
Americans' spending increased and business inventories decreased. The
ration of GDP – Final Sales (GDP adjusted for business inventory
changes) grew by a steep 7.1%. This was seen by investors as an
encouraging sign of underlying demand in the US economy.
• US consumer spending rose at the rate of 4.4% in the fourth quarter of
2010, which is the fastest pace since the start of 2006 and doubles the
average 2010 spending rate.
• For the first time in 2010, the US had a trade surplus in October.
• Spending on durable goods like cars and furniture rose by 21.6% and
spending on nondurable goods like food and clothing rose by 5%.
• Unemployment still remains above 9%. GDP growth must maintain 3% over
a sustained period to reduce this jobless figure. (Recent GDP growth was
impacted by reduction in business inventories more so than production
increases.)
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3. Other:
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Recent political events occurring in Africa, specifically Egypt, may
have an economic and petroleum influence as political change spreads
through the Arab world.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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