MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 31, 2012

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Jan 18

$100.59

 

Jan 19

$100.39

 

Jan 20

$98.46

 

Jan 23

$99.58

 

Jan 24

$98.95

 

Jan 25

$99.40

 

Jan 26

$99.70

 

Jan 27

$99.56

 

Jan 30

$98.78

 
 
  Average Average Average
  2012 2011 2010
January  $100.41  $89.44  $78.40
February    $88.83  $76.16
March    $102.74  $81.12
April    $109.67  $84.46
May    $101.29  $74.14
June    $96.40  $75.39
July    $97.43  $73.95
August    $86.23  $77.00
September    $86.13  $75.55
October   $86.10  $81.99
November   $96.86  $84.25
December   $98.51  $89.09
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jan 27/12 $99.56 120.1 106.3 132.7
Jan 27/11 $85.64 108.6 89.6 116.7
YOY Diff. +13.92 +11.5 +16.7 +16.0
% Change +16% +11% +19% +14%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


The most recent weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued Jan. 25, 2012 reported an increase in U.S. crude petroleum inventories.  U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels.  U.S. gasoline inventories fell slightly, down 390,000 barrels.  U.S. distillate product (diesel and heating oil) inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels.  The increase in crude inventory was attributed to crude inputs and decreased refinery production.  U.S. Atlantic Coast distillate product inventory, including heating oil, declined by 1.2 million barrels during the period.  Current Atlantic Coast heating oil stock inventory levels are 22% below the current five year average.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year

 

 Crude

+3,558,000 -1.7%
 

 Gasoline

+390,000 -1.3%
 

Distillates

-2,456,000 -12.1%


U.S. refinery operable utilization for the period ending Jan. 20, 2012 was reported at 82.2 percent, a slight decrease over the previous week's level.  Sunoco and ConocoPhillips announced plans to idle two Delaware County, Pennsylvania refineries by mid-summer of 2012.  Sunoco also announced it will close its Philadelphia refinery by July 2012 if a buyer for this refinery cannot be found before then.  These refineries are older facilities which rely on expensive sources of crude oil for processing.  The Philadelphia and Delaware refinery closures represent 50% of the refining capacity on the U.S. East Coast.  In addition, a joint venture refinery 'HOVENSA' in the U.S. Virgin Island has announced closure plans. This large refinery has been scaling back production due to its inability to compete with modern natural gas fuelled refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast, India, China and the Middle East.


2.  U.S Economic Highlights:
 
  •  MasterCard's weekly SpendingPulse survey showed U.S. gasoline demand rose 1.3% for the seven day period ending Jan. 20, 2012, the second consecutive week-over-week increase.  However, fuel demand was below year earlier levels, declining 5.2 percent over 2011 levels.

  • U.S. consumer spending was flat in December despite healthy gains in U.S. consumer incomes for the same period.  Disposable incomes rose 0.3 percent while consumer spending declined by 0.1 percent.  Overall consumer spending for 2011 rose by 4.7 percent, the largest increase since 2007.


3.  Other:
 
  •  The European Union's summit meeting this week, its 17th summit meeting in two years, continues to struggle with the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a 500 billion euro permanent bailout fund to become operational in July of 2012.  Some European countries, such as Greece, are balking at the 'fiscal compact treaty' designed to tighten fiscal budgets of member countries by the Union.
  • Continued tensions exist between Iran and European countries over sanctions imposed by Europe related to Iran's domestic nuclear program.  Iran continues to suggest it will cut off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in response to European trade sanctions.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil