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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
January 31, 2012
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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Jan 18 |
$100.59 |
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Jan 19 |
$100.39 |
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Jan 20 |
$98.46 |
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Jan 23 |
$99.58 |
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Jan 24 |
$98.95 |
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Jan 25 |
$99.40 |
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Jan 26 |
$99.70 |
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Jan 27 |
$99.56 |
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Jan 30 |
$98.78 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
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January |
$100.41 |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
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February |
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$88.83 |
$76.16 |
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March |
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$102.74 |
$81.12 |
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April |
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$109.67 |
$84.46 |
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May |
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$101.29 |
$74.14 |
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June |
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$96.40 |
$75.39 |
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July |
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$97.43 |
$73.95 |
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August |
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$86.23 |
$77.00 |
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September |
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$86.13 |
$75.55 |
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October |
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$86.10 |
$81.99 |
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November |
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$96.86 |
$84.25 |
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December |
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$98.51 |
$89.09 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Jan 27/12 |
$99.56 |
120.1 |
106.3 |
132.7 |
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Jan 27/11 |
$85.64 |
108.6 |
89.6 |
116.7 |
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YOY Diff. |
+13.92 |
+11.5 |
+16.7 |
+16.0 |
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% Change |
+16% |
+11% |
+19% |
+14% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The most recent weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum
inventory assessment, issued Jan. 25, 2012 reported an increase in U.S.
crude petroleum inventories. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by
3.6 million barrels. U.S. gasoline inventories fell slightly, down
390,000 barrels. U.S. distillate product (diesel and heating oil)
inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels. The increase in crude
inventory was attributed to crude inputs and decreased refinery
production. U.S. Atlantic Coast distillate product inventory,
including heating oil, declined by 1.2 million barrels during the
period. Current Atlantic Coast heating oil stock inventory levels
are 22% below the current five year average.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+3,558,000 |
-1.7% |
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Gasoline |
+390,000 |
-1.3% |
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Distillates |
-2,456,000 |
-12.1% |
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U.S. refinery operable utilization for the period ending Jan. 20, 2012
was reported at 82.2 percent, a slight decrease over the previous
week's level. Sunoco and ConocoPhillips announced plans to idle
two Delaware County, Pennsylvania refineries by mid-summer of 2012.
Sunoco also announced it will close its Philadelphia refinery by July
2012 if a buyer for this refinery cannot be found before then.
These refineries are older facilities which rely on expensive sources of
crude oil for processing. The Philadelphia and Delaware refinery
closures represent 50% of the refining capacity on the U.S. East Coast.
In addition, a joint venture refinery 'HOVENSA' in the U.S. Virgin
Island has announced closure plans. This large refinery has been scaling
back production due to its inability to compete with modern natural gas
fuelled refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast, India, China and the Middle
East.
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2. U.S Economic Highlights:
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MasterCard's
weekly SpendingPulse survey showed
U.S.
gasoline demand rose 1.3% for the seven day period ending Jan. 20, 2012,
the second consecutive week-over-week increase. However, fuel
demand was below year earlier levels, declining 5.2 percent over 2011
levels.
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U.S.
consumer spending was flat in December despite healthy gains in
U.S.
consumer incomes for the same period. Disposable incomes rose 0.3
percent while consumer spending declined by 0.1 percent. Overall
consumer spending for 2011 rose by 4.7 percent, the largest increase
since 2007.
3. Other:
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- The
European Union's summit meeting this week, its 17th summit meeting in
two years, continues to struggle with the creation of the European
Stability Mechanism (ESM), a 500 billion euro permanent bailout fund to
become operational in July of 2012. Some European countries, such
as Greece, are balking at the 'fiscal compact treaty' designed to
tighten fiscal budgets of member countries by the Union.
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Continued tensions exist between Iran and European countries over
sanctions imposed by Europe related to Iran's domestic nuclear program.
Iran continues to suggest it will cut off shipping in the Strait of
Hormuz in response to European trade sanctions.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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