MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 January 31, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jan 19

 $ 51.37

$ 54.16
 

Jan 20

 $ 52.42

$ 55.49
 

Jan 23

 $ 52.75

$ 55.23
 

Jan 24

 $ 53.18

$ 55.44
 

Jan 25

 $ 52.75

$ 55.08
 

Jan 26

 $ 53.78

$ 56.24
 

Jan 27

 $ 53.17

$ 55.52
 

Jan 30

 $ 52.63

$ 55.23
 

 

  

 
 Average Brent Crude for January: $ 55.41.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February    $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March    $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April    $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May    $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June    $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July    $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jan 27, 2017 $ 53.17 111.0 80.4 117.9
Jan 27, 2016 $ 32.30 90.2 67.6 98.2
YOY Diff. +20.87 +20.8 +12.8 +19.7
% Change +64.6% +23.1% +18.9% +20.1%

Commentary:


Relative pricing stability has been observed with regard to crude pricing over the past two weeks with WTI and Brent hovering in the low to mid fifty dollar range respectively.  Going forward, the market's perception of how effective OPEC can be in managing the crude production of its member countries will be the dominant factor in market pricing.

With regard to refined products, a more than adequate supply of gasoline combined with weaker off-season demand has served to depress wholesale pricing while mild winter weather thus far has served to temper wholesale pricing of furnace oil and diesel.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued January 25, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 2,840,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 6,796,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.  Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period by 1,239,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories increased by 76,000 barrels.  

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +2,840,000 +5.3%

Gasoline

 +6,796,000 +1.9%

Distillates

 +76,000 +5.4%
Source: DOE January 25, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate