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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 12, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Feb. 1 |
$74.43 |
Feb. 2 |
$77.23 |
Feb. 3 |
$76.98 |
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Feb. 4 |
$73.14 |
Feb. 5 |
$71.19 |
Feb. 8 |
$71.89 |
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Feb. 9 |
$73.75 |
Feb. 10 |
$74.52 |
Feb. 11 |
$75.28 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
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January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
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February |
$74.14 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
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March |
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$47.96 |
$105.62 |
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April |
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$49.82 |
$110.72 |
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May |
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$55.96 |
$124.98 |
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June |
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$69.60 |
$134.02 |
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July |
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$63.93 |
$134.29 |
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August |
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$71.04 |
$116.81 |
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September |
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$69.08 |
$104.27 |
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October |
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$75.56 |
$76.72 |
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November |
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$78.31 |
$57.44 |
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December |
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$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
A weakened U.S. dollar and geopolitical
tensions in both Nigeria and Iran combined to jump start a rise in crude
trading values early in the past two week period. However, doubts about
the health of both the U.S. and foreign economies, weak domestic North
American demand and rising inventories all served to subsequently
deflate market values. Improved equity markets and a softer U.S. dollar
helped to prop up crude values over the past few days. Unexpected
refinery interruptions initially caused refined product spot market
prices to rise, however, abnormal weather in the Northeastern U.S.
impacted demand for all petroleum products and resulted in a
stabilization of spot prices over the latter part of the past two week
period.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Feb 10/10 |
$74.52 |
99.9 |
76.2 |
100.4 |
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Feb 10/09 |
$37.55 |
84.4 |
68.8 |
94.9 |
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YOY Diff. |
+36.97 |
+15.5 |
+7.4 |
+5.5 |
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% Change |
+98.0% |
+18.0% |
+11.0% |
+6.0% |
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1. DOE Report
January 27, 2010 |
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N/A due to storm-related U.S. government office closure. |
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2. Demand Related:
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•
Since the start of this year, as more European countries transitioned to
making Eurobob, U.S. Atlantic Coast market players have noticed an
increase in Euro-grade gasoline offers into this side of the Atlantic.
Eurobob is a blendstock to which ethanol is added to create finished
gasoline for their retail markets. The use of ethanol as an octane
booster to produce Eurobob has freed up gasoline, particularly the
high-octane Euro-grade for sales elsewhere including New York Harbour.
• The market has noted an increase in export of ultra-low sulfur diesel
(ULSD) to Columbia.
Colombia's demand for ULSD surged in January with the introduction of a
new law reducing sulfur content in road fuel.
• The cancellation of hundreds of flights in the U.S. Northeast over the
past week to ten days due to snowstorms there has had a significant
impact on demand for jet fuel. In addition, the interruption of highway
traffic due to these storms has similarly impacted demand for gasoline
and diesel.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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