MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 12, 2010

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
Feb. 1 $74.43 Feb. 2 $77.23 Feb. 3 $76.98
Feb. 4 $73.14 Feb. 5 $71.19 Feb. 8 $71.89
Feb. 9 $73.75 Feb. 10 $74.52 Feb. 11 $75.28
 
  Average Average Average
  2010 2009 2008
January  $78.40 $41.96 $93.06
February  $74.14 $38.58 $95.34
March    $47.96 $105.62
April    $49.82 $110.72
May    $55.96 $124.98
June    $69.60 $134.02
July    $63.93 $134.29
August    $71.04 $116.81
September    $69.08 $104.27
October    $75.56 $76.72
November    $78.31 $57.44
December    $73.88 $42.17

Commentary:


A weakened U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions in both Nigeria and Iran combined to jump start a rise in crude trading values early in the past two week period. However, doubts about the health of both the U.S. and foreign economies, weak domestic North American demand and rising inventories all served to subsequently deflate market values. Improved equity markets and a softer U.S. dollar helped to prop up crude values over the past few days. Unexpected refinery interruptions initially caused refined product spot market prices to rise, however, abnormal weather in the Northeastern U.S. impacted demand for all petroleum products and resulted in a stabilization of spot prices over the latter part of the past two week period.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Feb 10/10       $74.52 99.9 76.2 100.4
Feb 10/09 $37.55 84.4 68.8 94.9
YOY Diff. +36.97 +15.5 +7.4 +5.5
% Change +98.0% +18.0% +11.0% +6.0%

 


1.  DOE Report
January 27, 2010

 
N/A due to storm-related U.S. government office closure.


2. Demand Related:
 

• Since the start of this year, as more European countries transitioned to making Eurobob, U.S. Atlantic Coast market players have noticed an increase in Euro-grade gasoline offers into this side of the Atlantic. Eurobob is a blendstock to which ethanol is added to create finished gasoline for their retail markets. The use of ethanol as an octane booster to produce Eurobob has freed up gasoline, particularly the high-octane Euro-grade for sales elsewhere including New York Harbour.
• The market has noted an increase in export of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) to Columbia. Colombia's demand for ULSD surged in January with the introduction of a new law reducing sulfur content in road fuel.
• The cancellation of hundreds of flights in the U.S. Northeast over the past week to ten days due to snowstorms there has had a significant impact on demand for jet fuel. In addition, the interruption of highway traffic due to these storms has similarly impacted demand for gasoline and diesel.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil