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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 14, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Feb 1 |
$90.77 |
Feb 2 |
$90.86 |
Feb 3 |
$90.54 |
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Feb 4 |
$89.03 |
Feb 7 |
$87.48 |
Feb 8 |
$86.94 |
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Feb 9 |
$86.71 |
Feb 10 |
$86.73 |
Feb 11 |
$85.58 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
$88.66 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
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$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
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$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
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$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
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$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
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$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
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$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
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$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
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$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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Commentary: |
Total US petroleum product stocks are at record levels. The most recent
Platts US Inventory Update for the period ending February 4, 2011,
states that US product stocks were 34.795 million barrels (m/b) above
the past five-year average and 16.521 m/b above year ago levels.
Drilling into the specific product categories, Platts reports that Crude
stocks, with a build in levels less than market expectations, are 18.386
m/b above the five year average and 13 m/b above year ago levels. US
gasoline stocks rose by 4.666 m/b for the week ending February 4, 2011.
This places gasoline stocks at 15.312 m/b above the five year average
and 10.446 m/b above last years level. Distillate products inventory
levels were 25.564 m/b above the five year average and 8.174 above year
ago levels.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Feb 10/11 |
$86.73 |
109.9 |
92.9 |
120.1 |
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Feb 10/10 |
$74.52 |
99.9 |
76.2 |
100.4 |
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YOY Diff. |
+12.21 |
+10.0 |
+16.7 |
+19.7 |
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% Change |
+16% |
+10% |
+22% |
+19.6% |
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1. DOE Report: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
Platts Summary Notes |
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Crude |
+1,898,000 |
+0.5% |
Increase despite dip in crude
imports and increase in runs.
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Gasoline |
+4,663,000 |
+1.9% |
Attractive refinery margins,
sluggish demand with harsh winter weather and continued
high US unemployment levels.
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Distillates |
+288,000 |
+0.1% |
Drop in demand and higher
production.
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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•
Positive signals on US job market front as US initial jobless claims
fall to 388,000 for the week ending Feb 4, 2011. This is the lowest
level in 2½ years; however, labor market economists indicate this level
would need to be sustained for a period of time to indicate consistent
job growth.
• Bloombergs reported on Feb. 11, 2011 that the U.S. trade deficit
widened in December for a second month as the cost of imported oil
climbed to the highest level in two years. The gap grew 5.9 percent to
$40.6 billion, in line with the $40.5 billion median forecast in a
Bloomberg survey of economists. However, excluding petroleum, the
shortfall shrank to $15.3 billion, the smallest since March.
• The U.S. trade gap with China narrowed to $20.7 billion in December
from $25.6 billion the prior month. Demand for American goods from
countries in the European Union climbed to the highest level since
October 2008.
• American companies like Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of
construction equipment, posted fourth-quarter profit that topped
analysts' estimates as sales advanced in China, Australia and Latin
America. Caterpillar's 4th quarter report indicated that sales improved
in every region with sales in developing countries at record levels.
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3. Other:
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Continued unrest in Egypt may have economic and petroleum pricing
influence, as political reforms may have unsettling effects in the
markets.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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