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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 14, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Feb 3 |
$ 96.43 |
$106.04 |
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Feb 4 |
$ 97.19 |
$105.78 |
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Feb 5 |
$ 97.38 |
$106.25 |
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Feb 6 |
$ 97.84 |
$107.19 |
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Feb 7 |
$ 99.88 |
$109.57 |
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Feb 10 |
$100.06 |
$108.63 |
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Feb 11 |
$ 99.94 |
$108.68 |
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Feb 12 |
$100.37 |
$108.79 |
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Feb 13 |
$100.35 |
$108.73 |
Average
Brent Crude for February:
$107.74. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
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February |
$ 98.83 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
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March |
|
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
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April |
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$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
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May |
|
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
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June |
|
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
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July |
|
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
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August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
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September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
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October |
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$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
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November |
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$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
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December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Feb 11/14 |
$ 99.94 |
135.5 |
119.3 |
156.0 |
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Feb 11/13 |
$ 97.03 |
127.3 |
110.3 |
135.9 |
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YOY Diff. |
+2.91 |
+8.2 |
+9.0 |
+20.1 |
|
% Change |
+3.0% |
+6.4% |
+8.2% |
+14.8% |
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Commentary: |
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Both
WTI and Brent crude prices have experienced modest
(approximately 2%) price escalation over the past two weeks
as continued cold weather impacted refined product
distillate inventories.
Wholesale rack pricing has fluctuated over that period as
weather has impacted conventional highway based
transportation reducing demand on one hand while that same
cold weather has impacted demand for home heating fuel.
In
recent days, production interruption at a Philadelphia
refinery has impacted gasoline production exerting upward
pressure on rack pricing. Alternatively, a DOE
reported recovery in distillate inventory has helped to
reduce pressure on distillate wholesale pricing.
While
crude futures rose slightly near the end of the period in
anticipation of increased demand, indications from new
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen of a continued status quo
stance on US fiscal policy coupled with a no surprise DOE
report served to encourage relative stability in refined
product pricing.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy Department
("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued
February 12, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of
3,300,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 1,900,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting
period by 128,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories decreased by 700,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 1.0 percent to
87.1%.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+3,300,000 |
-2.9% |
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Gasoline |
-1,900,000 |
-0.1% |
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Distillates |
-700,000 |
-10.2% |
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Source: DOE February 12, 2014 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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