MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 February 15, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Feb 1

 $ 53.88

$ 56.80
 

Feb 2

 $ 53.54

$ 56.56
 

Feb 3

 $ 53.83

$ 56.81
 

Feb 6

 $ 53.01

$ 55.72
 

Feb 7

 $ 52.17

$ 55.05
 

Feb 8

 $ 52.34

$ 55.12
 

Feb 9

 $ 53.00

$ 55.63
 

Feb 10

 $ 53.86

$ 56.70
 

Feb 13

 $ 52.93

$ 55.59
 Average Brent Crude for February: $ 56.00
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.18  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March    $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April    $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May    $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June    $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July    $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Feb 10, 2017 $ 53.86 105.5 79.4 116.2
Feb 10, 2016 $ 27.45 90.2 69.6 99.9
YOY Diff. +26.41 +15.3 +9.8 +16.3
% Change +96.2% +17.0% +14.1% +16.3%

Commentary:


Once again, relative stability has characterized crude futures pricing over the past two weeks.  Credible indications of OPEC member nation compliance with agreed upon production cuts offset by evidence of increased US domestic crude output have kept crude pricing in check over the period.  Changes in US dollar trading values has caused some minor daily fluctuation.

With regard to refined product, ample inventory positions and less than aggressive demand has resulted in relative price stability.  The onset of the winter refinery maintenance schedule has triggered occasional refinery purchases of refined product (so as to meet contracted customer supply commitments) resulting in temporary price spiking at times.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued February 8, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 13,830,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 869,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.  Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting period by 631,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories increased by 29,000 barrels.  

US refinery utilization rates decreased by 0.5% to 87.7% of capacity.  

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +13,830,000 +8.1%

Gasoline

 +869,000 +0.2%

Distillates

 +29,000 +6.1%
Source: DOE February 8, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate