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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 27, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Feb 13 |
$ 52.78 |
$ 61.52 |
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Feb 17 |
$ 53.53 |
$ 62.53 |
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Feb 18 |
$ 52.14 |
$ 60.53 |
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Feb 19 |
$ 51.16 |
$ 60.21 |
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Feb 20 |
$ 50.34 |
$
60.22 |
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Feb 23 |
$ 49.45 |
$ 58.90 |
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Feb 24 |
$ 49.28 |
$ 58.66 |
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Feb 25 |
$ 50.99 |
$ 61.63 |
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Feb 26 |
$ 48.17 |
$ 60.05 |
Average
Brent Crude for February:
$ 58.44. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
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January |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
|
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
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$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
|
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
|
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
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$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
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$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
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$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
|
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
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$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
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$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Feb 26/15 |
$ 48.17 |
103.3 |
96.0 |
129.5 |
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Feb 26/14 |
$102.59 |
135.5 |
119.3 |
156.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
-54.42 |
-32.2 |
-23.3 |
-26.5 |
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% Change |
-53.0% |
-23.8% |
-19.5% |
-17.0% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude oil prices
continue to fluctuate around $50.00 per barrel as the
conflicting pressures of perceived oversupply and reports of
reduced rig counts compete with each other. While crude
prices remain relatively stable, refined product pricing has
been anything but. The onset of cold weather, the
unanticipated idling of three major refineries on the
Atlantic Coast and the pipeline supply related impact of
refinery labour strikes combined this past period to exert a
significant upward pressure on wholesale distillate prices.
Additionally, the diversion of gasoline inventory to the
South Atlantic region has impacted NYMEX gasoline pricing.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued February 25, 2015, reported an increase in US crude stocks
of 8,400,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 3,100,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period.
US
distillate inventories decreased by 2,700,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization rates decreased by 1.3% to
87.4% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+8,400,000 |
+19.8% |
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Gasoline |
-3,100,000 |
+4.1% |
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Distillates |
-2,700,000 |
+10.3% |
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Source: DOE February 25, 2015 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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