
|
MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 28, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
|
Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
|
Feb 14 |
$84.81 |
Feb 15 |
$84.32 |
Feb 16 |
$84.99 |
Feb 17 |
$86.36 |
Feb 18 |
$86.20 |
Feb 22 |
$93.57 |
Feb 23 |
$98.10 |
Feb 24 |
$97.28 |
Feb 25 |
$97.88 |
|
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
February |
$89.74 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
March |
|
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
April |
|
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
May |
|
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
June |
|
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
July |
|
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
August |
|
$77.00 |
$71.04 |
September |
|
$75.55 |
$69.08 |
October |
|
$81.99 |
$75.56 |
November |
|
$84.25 |
$78.31 |
December |
|
$89.09 |
$73.88 |
|
|
Commentary: |
US petroleum total product stocks retreated in the week ending February 18
to the lowest levels since April, 2010, according to recent Platts "US
Inventory Update". Inventory reductions were attributed to lower
refinery output and imports. Total US product stocks were at 710.873
million barrels (m/b); total product inventory was 24.446 m/b above both
the five year average and 1.461 m/b above year ago levels. Refinery
throughput declined in every region except the US West Coast region. US
refinery runs fell below 80 percent to 79.6 percent for the last week
despite attractive crack spreads (i.e. the profit margin refiners make
when turning a barrel of crude into gasoline or distillate products.).
This reduced refinery production along with reduced imports of refined
product lead to product inventory declines.
Reviewing specific product categories, Platts reports that crude stocks
increased despite lower imports mainly due to reduced refining. Crude
stocks are 15.793 m/b above the five year average and 9.202 m/b above
year ago levels. US gasoline and middle distillate stocks declined 2.798
m/b for the week ending February 18, 2011. Platts reports that overall
oil demand decreased in its most recent report. The drop in oil demand,
as seen by the reduced refinery throughput, was attributed to reduced
demand for middle distillate product with heating oil falling off as
temperatures moderate. Gasoline demand climbed 291,000 barrels a day as
weather conditions improved allowing for more travelling.
|
|
|
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Feb 24/11 |
$97.28 |
111.0 |
93.9 |
121.2 |
Feb 24/10 |
$80.00 |
99.9 |
76.2 |
100.4 |
YOY Diff. |
+17.28 |
+11.1 |
+17.7 |
+20.8 |
% Change |
+22% |
+11% |
+23% |
+21% |
|
1. DOE Report: |
|
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
Platts Summary Notes |
|
Crude |
+822,000 |
+0.002% |
Reduced crude imports but
reduced refining lead to inventory build.
|
|
Gasoline |
-2,798,000 |
-1.12% |
Improved weather and
travelling.
|
|
Distillates |
-1,333,000 |
-0.8% |
Drop in demand and production.
|
|
|
2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
|
•
US economy grew at 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010 which was slower
than previously calculated and forecast. Reduced government spending
associated with budget cuts at state and local government levels
impacted fourth quarter economic activity. Excluding the effect of
inventory, the economy grew at 6.7% which is the most since 1998.
• Bloomberg's reports that companies like Caterpillar Inc. continue to
see positive results due to overseas economies.
• Bloomberg's reports the impact of rising oil and petroleum product
prices has some economists concerned about its effect on the American
economy, however, at this point the US consumer has not reacted
significantly to petroleum price increases.
|
3. Other:
|
Continued unrest in northern
African countries which has now spread to Libya,
continue to put speculative pressure on the oil markets
and pricing.
|
|
|
Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
|