MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 28, 2011

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
Feb 14 $84.81 Feb 15 $84.32 Feb 16 $84.99
Feb 17 $86.36 Feb 18 $86.20 Feb 22 $93.57
Feb 23 $98.10 Feb 24 $97.28 Feb 25 $97.88
 
  Average Average Average
  2011 2010 2009
January  $89.44  $78.40 $41.96
February  $89.74  $76.16 $38.58
March    $81.12  $47.96
April    $84.46  $49.82
May    $74.14  $55.96
June    $75.39  $69.60
July    $73.95  $63.93
August    $77.00  $71.04
September    $75.55  $69.08
October    $81.99  $75.56
November    $84.25  $78.31
December    $89.09  $73.88

Commentary:


US petroleum total product stocks retreated in the week ending February 18 to the lowest levels since April, 2010, according to recent Platts "US Inventory Update". Inventory reductions were attributed to lower refinery output and imports. Total US product stocks were at 710.873 million barrels (m/b); total product inventory was 24.446 m/b above both the five year average and 1.461 m/b above year ago levels. Refinery throughput declined in every region except the US West Coast region. US refinery runs fell below 80 percent to 79.6 percent for the last week despite attractive crack spreads (i.e. the profit margin refiners make when turning a barrel of crude into gasoline or distillate products.). This reduced refinery production along with reduced imports of refined product lead to product inventory declines.

Reviewing specific product categories, Platts reports that crude stocks increased despite lower imports mainly due to reduced refining. Crude stocks are 15.793 m/b above the five year average and 9.202 m/b above year ago levels. US gasoline and middle distillate stocks declined 2.798 m/b for the week ending February 18, 2011. Platts reports that overall oil demand decreased in its most recent report. The drop in oil demand, as seen by the reduced refinery throughput, was attributed to reduced demand for middle distillate product with heating oil falling off as temperatures moderate. Gasoline demand climbed 291,000 barrels a day as weather conditions improved allowing for more travelling.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Feb 24/11 $97.28 111.0 93.9 121.2
Feb 24/10 $80.00 99.9 76.2 100.4
YOY Diff. +17.28 +11.1 +17.7 +20.8
% Change +22% +11% +23% +21%

 


1.  DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year

Platts Summary Notes

 

 Crude

+822,000 +0.002% Reduced crude imports but reduced refining lead to inventory build.
 
 

 Gasoline

-2,798,000 -1.12% Improved weather and travelling.
 
 

Distillates

-1,333,000 -0.8% Drop in demand and production.
 

2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
 

• US economy grew at 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010 which was slower than previously calculated and forecast. Reduced government spending associated with budget cuts at state and local government levels impacted fourth quarter economic activity. Excluding the effect of inventory, the economy grew at 6.7% which is the most since 1998.
• Bloomberg's reports that companies like Caterpillar Inc. continue to see positive results due to overseas economies.
• Bloomberg's reports the impact of rising oil and petroleum product prices has some economists concerned about its effect on the American economy, however, at this point the US consumer has not reacted significantly to petroleum price increases.


3. Other:
 

Continued unrest in northern African countries which has now spread to Libya, continue to put speculative pressure on the oil markets and pricing.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil