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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 28, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
|
|
Feb 14 |
$100.30 |
$109.08 |
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Feb 18 |
$102.43 |
$110.46 |
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Feb 19 |
$103.31 |
$110.47 |
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Feb 20 |
$102.92 |
$110.30 |
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Feb 21 |
$102.20 |
$109.85 |
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Feb 24 |
$102.82 |
$110.64 |
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Feb 25 |
$101.83 |
$109.51 |
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Feb 26 |
$102.59 |
$109.52 |
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Feb 27 |
$102.40 |
$108.96 |
Average
Brent Crude for February:
$108.80. |
|
West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
|
February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
|
March |
|
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
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April |
|
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
|
May |
|
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
|
June |
|
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
|
July |
|
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
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August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
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September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
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October |
|
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
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November |
|
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
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December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Feb 26/14 |
$102.59 |
135.5 |
119.3 |
156.0 |
|
Feb 26/13 |
$ 92.63 |
128.3 |
114.4 |
140.2 |
|
YOY Diff. |
+9.96 |
+7.2 |
+4.9 |
+15.8 |
|
% Change |
+10.8% |
+5.6% |
+4.3% |
+11.3% |
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Commentary: |
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Relative stability of global oil prices has been observed
over the past two week period. The gap between Brent
and WTI pricing however, continues to diminish and now at
less than $7.00 a barrel is at its narrowest level since
October. Currently, tensions in the Ukraine are
dampening market anticipation for Brent pricing while the
continued reduction of former record high inventory levels
of crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, due to the January start of
the Southern leg of the Keystone Pipeline impacts WTI
pricing.
Domestically, the prolonged winter of 2014 has kept upward
pressure on refined product inventories and rack prices of,
in particular, distillate productions. Reduced
refinery capacity due to seasonal maintenance related
production interruption has impacted gasoline wholesale rack
prices.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy Department
("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued
February 26, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of
100,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 2,800,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting
period by 505,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories increased by 300,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 1.2 percent to
88% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+100,000 |
-4.0% |
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Gasoline |
-2,800,000 |
+0.9% |
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Distillates |
+300,000 |
-9.0% |
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Source: DOE February 26, 2014 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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