MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 February 28, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Feb 14

 $ 53.20

$ 55.97
 

Feb 15

 $ 53.11

$ 55.75
 

Feb 16

 $ 53.36

$ 55.65
 

Feb 17

 $ 53.40

$ 55.81
 

Feb 21

 $ 54.06

$ 56.66
 

Feb 22

 $ 53.59

$ 55.84
 

Feb 23

 $ 54.45

$ 56.58
 

Feb 24

 $ 53.99

$ 55.99
 

Feb 27

 $ 54.05

$ 55.93
 Average Brent Crude for February: $ 56.01
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March    $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April    $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May    $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June    $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July    $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Feb 24, 2017 $ 53.99 105.5 79.4 116.2
Feb 24, 2016 $ 32.15 83.9 69.6 99.9
YOY Diff. +21.84 +21.6 +9.8 +16.3
% Change +67.9% +25.7% +14.1% +16.3%

Commentary:


Crude pricing continued to maintain a relatively stable price range over the past two weeks with Brent averaging $56.04 against an average of $53.71 for WTI.  The competing effects of an OPEC member nation quota cut vs. increased domestic US production have combined to keep market prices range bound over the two week period.

With regard to refined product pricing, both gasoline and distillate inventories were down this past week as per DOE reports though off-season demand for gasoline and a mild winter thus far have served to curb any dramatic pricing fluctuation.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued  February 22, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 564,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 2,628,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.  
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 4,924,000 barrels.

US refinery utilization rates decreased by 1.1% to 84.3% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +564,000 +8.9%

Gasoline

 -2,628,000 0%

Distillates

 -4,924,000 +2.7%
Source: DOE February 22, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate