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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
February 29, 2016
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Feb 12 |
$ 29.44 |
$ 33.36 |
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Feb 16 |
$ 29.04 |
$ 32.18 |
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Feb 17 |
$ 30.66 |
$ 34.50 |
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Feb 18 |
$ 30.77 |
$ 34.28 |
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Feb 19 |
$ 29.64 |
$
33.01 |
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Feb 22 |
$ 31.48 |
$ 34.69 |
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Feb 23 |
$ 31.87 |
$ 33.27 |
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Feb 24 |
$ 32.15 |
$ 34.41 |
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Feb 25 |
$ 30.07 |
$ 35.29 |
Average
Brent Crude for February:
$ 33.41 |
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West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
Average |
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|
2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
|
January |
$ 31.67 |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
|
February |
$ 30.45 |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
|
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
|
$ 54.63 |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
|
$ 59.37 |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
|
$ 59.76 |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
|
$ 50.93 |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
|
$ 42.89 |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
|
$ 45.48 |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
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$ 46.29 |
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
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$ 42.94 |
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
|
$ 37.33 |
$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Feb 24/16 |
$ 32.15 |
83.9 |
69.6 |
99.9 |
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Feb 24/15 |
$ 49.28 |
103.3 |
96.0 |
129.5 |
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YOY Diff. |
-17.13 |
-19.4 |
-26.4 |
-29.6 |
|
% Change |
-34.8% |
-18.8% |
-27.5% |
-22.9% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude oil pricing
continues in the $30.00 per barrel neighborhood as market
pre-occupation with surplus global supplies continues to be
the primary market driver. Speculative activity has at
times created pricing escalation but same has been of
limited duration given the recent pronouncements from Saudi
Arabia and the imminent return of Iranian exports.
With
regard to refined product pricing, milder weather has
tempered distillate demand, while the recent reduction in
refining capacity due to seasonal maintenance has impacted
wholesale gasoline pricing.
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Economic Data: |
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1. Platts Inventory
Update:
The US
Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory
assessment, issued February 24, 2016, reported an increase in US
crude stocks of 3,502,000 barrels.
US gasoline
inventories decreased by 2,236,000 barrels over the previous
reporting period. Implied demand increased by 373,000 b/d.
US distillate inventories
decreased by 1,660,000 barrels.
US
refinery utilization rates decreased by 1.0% to 87.3% of
capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+3,502,000 |
+16.9% |
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Gasoline |
-2,236,000 |
+6.9% |
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Distillates |
-1,660,000 |
+28.9% |
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Source: DOE February 24, 2016 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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