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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 12, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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March 1 |
$78.70 |
March 2 |
$79.68 |
March 3 |
$80.87 |
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March 4 |
$80.21 |
March 5 |
$81.50 |
March 8 |
$81.87 |
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March 9 |
$81.49 |
March 10 |
$82.09 |
March 11 |
$82.11 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
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January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
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February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
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March |
$80.80 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
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April |
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$49.82 |
$110.72 |
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May |
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$55.96 |
$124.98 |
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June |
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$69.60 |
$134.02 |
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July |
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$63.93 |
$134.29 |
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August |
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$71.04 |
$116.81 |
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September |
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$69.08 |
$104.27 |
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October |
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$75.56 |
$76.72 |
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November |
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$78.31 |
$57.44 |
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December |
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$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices generally escalated over
the past two weeks reaching a trading point high of $83.12 at one point
this past week. The fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar and indications
of increased import demand from China have been the primary price
determinants over the past two weeks. Gasoline spot market prices crept
upward over the period influenced by tightness of supply at times due to
reduced European imports resulting from the Total strike and increased
demand from West Africa, South America and even the Persian Gulf. New
York Harbour distillate prices have been impacted by refinery
interruptions as of late, including the Come By Chance refinery which is
just now returning to production after experiencing a fire in late
February. Continued mild weather and the sell-off of winter grade
product should allow for moderation in the spot market pricing of
gasolines and distillates in the near future.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Mar 10/10 |
$82.09 |
104.0 |
78.3 |
102.7 |
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Mar 10/09 |
$45.71 |
83.3 |
63.1 |
88.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
+36.38 |
+20.7 |
+15.2 |
+14.7 |
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% Change |
+80.0% |
+25.0% |
+24.0% |
+17.0% |
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1. DOE Report
March 10, 2010 |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+1,400,000 |
-2.4% |
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Gasoline |
-2,900,000 |
+7.7% |
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Distillates |
-2,200,000 |
+2.8% |
Refinery Yield:
80.7% (down 1.2% vs. last week)
Demand: See Below. |
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2. Demand Related:
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The Federal Aviation Administration predicted this week that jet fuel
consumption may increase this year. U.S. carrier's regional flights are
anticipated to be up 4.6% after having experienced a 3.4% decline last
year. But the Administration cautions airlines will likely pack more
passengers per flight and airlines will continue to replace their aging
fleets with more fuel efficient aircraft.
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3. Economic:
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• The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index dipped
7.6% in January to 90.4 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in December.
Economists were expecting a 1% rise.
• The U.S. Labor Department reported that 469,000 Americans filed for
unemployment insurance the week of March 1, the lowest level since Jan 9
and down 29,000 from the previous week.
• Oil prices got a boost last Friday from China Premier Wen Jiabao who
said that his country is on track for 8% growth this year. China is the
second biggest consumer of oil in the world after the U.S.
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4. Other:
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Come By Chance refinery: Now owned and operated by Korean National Oil
Company. CBC refinery output made up of 33% gasoline, 42% diesel/jet and
25% fuel oil. Plant capacity 115,000 barrels per day.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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