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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 13, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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March 2 |
$40.15 |
March 3 |
$41.65 |
March 4 |
$45.38 |
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March 5 |
$43.61 |
March 6 |
$45.52 |
March 9 |
$47.07 |
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March 10 |
$45.71 |
March 11 |
$42.33 |
March 12 |
$47.03 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
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January |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
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February |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
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March |
$43.92 |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
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April |
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$110.72 |
$64.08 |
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May |
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$124.98 |
$63.54 |
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June |
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$134.02 |
$67.46 |
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July |
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$134.29 |
$73.80 |
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August |
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$116.81 |
$72.17 |
$73.10 |
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September |
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$104.27 |
$79.52 |
$63.89 |
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October |
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$76.72 |
$85.19 |
$59.20 |
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November |
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$57.44 |
$94.95 |
$59.41 |
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December |
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$42.17 |
$91.24 |
$62.09 |
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Commentary: |
Torn between depressed economic news,
reports of Nigerian and OPEC production cutbacks and a late week stock
market rejuvenation, crude prices floated through the $40 to $50 dollar
range this past two weeks, ending the week in excess of $47.00. OPEC's
anticipated announcement of further production cuts next week should
support prices as the trading week ends. Notwithstanding, surplus
distillate inventories and reduced demand for gasoline reported by DOE
have tempered refined product pricing. Continued milder weather and the
dumping of remaining winter gas on the market should influence prices in
the immediate future.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Mar. 11/09 |
$42.33 |
83.3 |
63.1 |
88.0 |
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Mar. 11/08 |
$108.75 |
112.1 |
93.7 |
121.2 |
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YOY Diff. |
-66.42 |
-28.8 |
-30.6 |
-33.4 |
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% Change |
-61% |
-26% |
-33% |
-28% |
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1. DOE Report - March 11, 2009 |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over
Year |
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Crude |
+700,000 |
+12.7% |
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Gasoline |
-3,000,000 |
-9.9% |
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Distillates |
+2,100,000 |
+25.3% |
Refinery Yield: up 0.2% v. last week. |
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Demand:
Distillate demand down 6.1%. |
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2. Demand related: |
•
DOE
reported this week that U.S. national demand for distillate fuel
dropped by 6.1% week over week.
•
Chinese oil imports have dropped 13% in the first two months of
the year and are now at their lowest level in more than two
years.
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3.
Economic: |
• The U.S. Labor Dept. reported Wednesday that California, South
Carolina, Michigan and Rhode Island registered double digit unemployment
rates in January. The national unemployment rate was 8.1% in February,
the highest in 25 years.
• Staples Inc. reported that its fourth quarter profit dropped 14%.
• JBC Energy reported this week that U.S. passenger car sales dropped by
39% year over year.
• Oil futures gained in the latter part of this week buoyed by the
recent rise in U.S. equity values. Stocks rose as General Electric
announced that the loss of its top credit rating at Standard and Poor's
won't hurt business and Bank of America reported that it was profitable
in January and February.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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