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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 13, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Mar 2 |
$ 49.59 |
$ 59.54 |
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Mar 3 |
$ 50.52 |
$ 61.02 |
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Mar 4 |
$ 51.53 |
$ 60.55 |
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Mar 5 |
$ 50.76 |
$ 60.48 |
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Mar 6 |
$ 49.61 |
$
59.73 |
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Mar 9 |
$ 50.00 |
$ 58.53 |
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Mar 10 |
$ 48.29 |
$ 56.39 |
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Mar 11 |
$ 48.17 |
$ 57.54 |
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Mar 12 |
$ 47.05 |
$ 57.08 |
Average
Brent Crude for March:
$ 58.98. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
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January |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
$ 49.50 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
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$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
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$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
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$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
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$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
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$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
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$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
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$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
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$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
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$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Mar 11/15 |
$ 48.17 |
107.8 |
99.2 |
133.2 |
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Mar 11/14 |
$100.03 |
138.5 |
121.3 |
158.8 |
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YOY Diff. |
-51.86 |
-30.7 |
-22.1 |
-25.6 |
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% Change |
-51.8% |
-22.2% |
-18.2% |
-16.1% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude pricing remained relatively stable over past two weeks
with WTI averaging approximately $50 per barrel while Brent
averaged approximately $60 per barrel. Overall market
reaction to perceived inventory surpluses and fluctuation in
trading value of US dollar appeared to be primary factors of
influence. The restoration of refinery capacity and a break
in the colder weather have allowed for the rebuilding of
refined product inventories thus providing some relief on
wholesale product pricing.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued March 10, 2015, reported an increase in US crude stocks
of 4,500,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 187,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period.
US
distillate inventories increased by 2,500,000 barrels.
Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period
by 115,000 b/d.
US refinery utilization rates increased by 1.2% to
87.8% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+4,500,000 |
+21.3% |
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Gasoline |
-187,000 |
+7.2% |
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Distillates |
+2,500,000 |
+10.1% |
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Source: DOE March 10, 2015 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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