MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 14, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Mar 1

$90.68
 

 Mar 4 

$90.12
 

Mar 5

$90.82
 

Mar 6

$90.43
 

Mar 7

$91.56
 

Mar 8

$91.95
 

Mar 11

$92.06
 

Mar 12

$92.54
 

Mar 13

$92.52
 Average Brent Crude for February: $110.39.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 91.41  $106.36  $102.74
April    $103.18  $109.67
May    $ 95.47  $101.29
June    $ 82.28  $96.40
July    $ 87.93  $97.43
August    $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Mar 13/13 $ 92.52 127.3 112.9 137.6
Mar 13/12 $106.71 127.6 108.7 133.4
YOY Diff. - 14.19 -0.3 +4.2 +4.2
% Change -13.3% -0.2% +3.9% +3.1%

Commentary:


1. Platts Inventory Update:

The U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued March 13, 2013, reported an increase in U.S. commercial crude stocks of 2.6 million barrels.  The U.S. crude stock increase is attributed to decreased refinery utilization and increases in imports and U.S. domestic crude production.  U.S. refinery utilization decreased by 1.2 percent to 88.0%.  U.S. gasoline inventories declined as implied demand outpaced production and imports of refined product.  Distillate inventories increased marginally.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

      
 

Crude

 +2,624,000 +10.5%      
 

Gasoline

 -3,571,000 -1.7%      
 

Distillates

 +83,000 -10.7%      
  U.S. refinery utilization decreased by 1.2% to 88.0% of production capacity.
Source: DOE March 13, 2013

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate