MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 31, 2010

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
Mar. 18 $82.20 Mar. 19 $80.68 Mar. 22 $81.25
Mar. 23 $81.91 Mar. 24 $80.61 Mar. 25 $80.53
Mar. 26 $80.00 Mar. 29 $82.17 Mar. 30 $82.37
 
  Average Average Average
  2010 2009 2008
January  $78.40 $41.96 $93.06
February  $76.16 $38.58 $95.34
March  $81.12  $47.96 $105.62
April    $49.82 $110.72
May    $55.96 $124.98
June    $69.60 $134.02
July    $63.93 $134.29
August    $71.04 $116.81
September    $69.08 $104.27
October    $75.56 $76.72
November    $78.31 $57.44
December    $73.88 $42.17

Commentary:


Crude prices remained relatively consistent over the past two weeks settling in the low $80 range. Refined products followed suit with weak demand and adequate inventories influencing wholesale market prices. A build in propane inventories due to milder weather and a less than robust industrial demand served to exert significant downward pressure on wholesale market propane prices over the past month.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Mar 26/10       $80.00 104.0 78.3 102.7
Mar 26/09 $54.34 84.3 63.1 88.0
YOY Diff. +25.66 +19.7 +15.2 +14.7
% Change +47.0% +23.0% +24.0% +17.0%

 


1.  DOE Report
March 24, 2010:

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year

Crude

+7,300,000 -1.4%

Gasoline

-2,700,000 +4.6%

Distillates

-2,400,000 +1.2%

Refinery  Yield:  81.9%,  Past 5 year average 85.7%.
Demand:  See Below.


2. Demand Related:
 

The Federal Highway Administration last week reported that vehicle miles travelled in the U.S. in January fell 1.6% or by 3.7 billion vehicle miles compared with the same month last year.


3. Economic:
 

The U.S. Commerce Department reported last week that it was revising its GDP reading for the last three months of 2009 to 5.6%. The figure still represents the most robust expansion in years but it was lower than a prior estimate of 5.9% and many market watchers anticipate that growth will slow over the next few quarters as businesses remain cautious and the labor and housing markets continue their sluggish rebound.
The Commerce Department did report on Monday that consumer spending rose for the fifth consecutive month in February, raising hopes that oil and gas demand will rise as well.


4. Other:
 

Chevron, the second largest U.S. oil company, plans to slash 2000 jobs as depressed refinery margins continue to impact operational profitability. Company officials have commented as of late that "downstream market conditions are likely to be difficult for the next several years".

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil