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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 31, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Mar. 18 |
$82.20 |
Mar. 19 |
$80.68 |
Mar. 22 |
$81.25 |
Mar. 23 |
$81.91 |
Mar. 24 |
$80.61 |
Mar. 25 |
$80.53 |
Mar. 26 |
$80.00 |
Mar. 29 |
$82.17 |
Mar. 30 |
$82.37 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
March |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
April |
|
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
May |
|
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
June |
|
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
July |
|
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
August |
|
$71.04 |
$116.81 |
September |
|
$69.08 |
$104.27 |
October |
|
$75.56 |
$76.72 |
November |
|
$78.31 |
$57.44 |
December |
|
$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices remained
relatively consistent over the past two weeks settling in the low $80
range. Refined products followed suit with weak demand and adequate
inventories influencing wholesale market prices. A build in propane
inventories due to milder weather and a less than robust industrial
demand served to exert significant downward pressure on wholesale market
propane prices over the past month.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Mar 26/10 |
$80.00 |
104.0 |
78.3 |
102.7 |
Mar 26/09 |
$54.34 |
84.3 |
63.1 |
88.0 |
YOY Diff. |
+25.66 |
+19.7 |
+15.2 |
+14.7 |
% Change |
+47.0% |
+23.0% |
+24.0% |
+17.0% |
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1. DOE Report
March 24, 2010: |
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
Crude |
+7,300,000 |
-1.4% |
Gasoline |
-2,700,000 |
+4.6% |
Distillates |
-2,400,000 |
+1.2% |
Refinery Yield:
81.9%, Past 5 year average 85.7%.
Demand: See Below. |
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2. Demand Related:
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The Federal Highway
Administration last week reported that vehicle miles travelled in the
U.S. in January fell 1.6% or by 3.7 billion vehicle miles compared with
the same month last year.
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3. Economic:
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• The U.S. Commerce
Department reported last week that it was revising its GDP reading for
the last three months of 2009 to 5.6%. The figure still represents the
most robust expansion in years but it was lower than a prior estimate of
5.9% and many market watchers anticipate that growth will slow over the
next few quarters as businesses remain cautious and the labor and
housing markets continue their sluggish rebound.
•
The
Commerce Department did report on Monday that consumer spending rose for
the fifth consecutive month in February, raising hopes that oil and gas
demand will rise as well.
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4. Other:
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Chevron,
the second largest U.S. oil company, plans to slash 2000 jobs as
depressed refinery margins continue to impact operational profitability.
Company officials have commented as of late that "downstream market
conditions are likely to be difficult for the next several years".
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Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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