MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 31, 2011

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
March 18 $101.07 March 21 $102.33 March 22 $104.00
March 23 $105.75 March 24 $105.60 March 25 $105.40
March 28 $103.98 March 29 $104.79 March 30 $104.27
 
  Average Average Average
  2011 2010 2009
January  $89.44  $78.40 $41.96
February  $88.83  $76.16 $38.58
March  $102.74  $81.12  $47.96
April    $84.46  $49.82
May    $74.14  $55.96
June    $75.39  $69.60
July    $73.95  $63.93
August    $77.00  $71.04
September    $75.55  $69.08
October    $81.99  $75.56
November    $84.25  $78.31
December    $89.09  $73.88

Commentary:


Platts Inventory Update:
Total US crude stocks were up 2.945 million barrels (m/b) for the week ending March 25, 2011. Increased crude inventory was assisted by increased crude imports. Gasoline product stocks fell 2.684 m/b for the week ending March 25, 2011. While gasoline stock levels were above last week's inventory levels, it is below last year's level for the same period. Stocks of ultra low sulphur diesel increased from the previous week while heating oil product inventory decreased in line with seasonal tendencies. Gross crude oil inputs to refineries remained the same as the previous week.
 
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Mar 29/11 $104.79 121.2 103.4 130.5
March 29/10 $82.17 104.0 78.3 102.7
YOY Diff. +22.62 +17.2 +25.1 +27.8
% Change +28% +17% +32 +27%

 

1.  DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
 

 Crude

 +2,945,000 +0.04%
 

 Gasoline

 -2,684,000 -3.48%
 

Distillates

 +712,000 +6.03%

2.  Economic Highlights:
 

• Mastercard reports that gasoline demand was flat last week but below year ago levels (-0.2%) attributing the decline to rising prices despite the improved employment outlook in the US. Mastercard states that US gasoline prices are 26.7% higher than year ago levels.
• High US crude and refined product prices continue to cause concern over the impact these prices will have on the economy in the US with most economists suggesting 2011 economic growth to remain flat in the US.
• Data through January 2011, released this week by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of US home prices, show further deceleration in the annual growth rates in housing values with a decline of 3.1% year over year decline.
• Private payroll processing company ADP recently reported that private sector payrolls continued to show growth with over 200,000 private sector jobs added in March and the number of planned job cuts fell.
• US Dept. of Labour reported that January unemployment rates fell or held steady in 40 states indicating strengthening in hiring throughout the US. 
3. Other:
 

• Unrest in Libya and the intervention of NATO continue to impact the open market price of crude and petroleum commodities according to industry analysts.
• The unfolding events in Japan concerning the nuclear crisis and its potential impact on the world economy are still being watched by analysts. Lost production in automotive plants both in Japan and in North America due to parts shortages may have employment consequences. In addition, nuclear energy lost in the disaster may be replaced by oil generated electricity in the short term.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil