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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 31, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Mar 18 |
$ 99.70 |
$106.79 |
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Mar 19 |
$100.37 |
$105.85 |
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Mar 20 |
$ 99.43 |
$106.45 |
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Mar 21 |
$ 99.46 |
$106.92 |
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Mar 24 |
$ 99.60 |
$106.81 |
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Mar 25 |
$ 99.19 |
$106.99 |
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Mar 26 |
$100.26 |
$107.03 |
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Mar 27 |
$101.28 |
$107.83 |
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Mar 28 |
$101.67 |
$108.07 |
Average
Brent Crude for March:
$107.75. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
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|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
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February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
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March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
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April |
|
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
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May |
|
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
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June |
|
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
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July |
|
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
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August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
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September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
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October |
|
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
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November |
|
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
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December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Mar 27/14 |
$101.28 |
136.8 |
114.3 |
152.0 |
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Mar 27/13 |
$ 96.58 |
128.3 |
109.7 |
134.7 |
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YOY Diff. |
+4.7 |
+8.5 |
+4.6 |
+17.3 |
|
% Change |
+4.9% |
+6.6% |
+4.2% |
+12.8% |
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Commentary: |
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A
slight escalation in both Brent and WTI pricing has been
observed over the past two weeks with same primarily
attributable to 1) the continued draw down of Cushing Hub
crude inventories due to XL Pipeline; 2) recent positive
news relative to the U.S. economy; 3) Nigerian pipeline
sabotage issues and 4) Ukrainian tensions. DOE, most
recently, reported Atlantic Coast builds in both gasoline
and distillate inventories. The arrival of spring weather
signaling the end of the traditional heating season should
spell relief for heating oil prices.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy Department
("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued
March 26, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of
6,600,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 5,100,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting
period by 490,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories increased by 300,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 0.4 percent to
86% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+6,600,000 |
-0.9% |
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Gasoline |
-5,100,000 |
-1.8% |
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Distillates |
+1,600,000 |
-2.5% |
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Source: DOE March 26, 2014 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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