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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
March 31, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Mar 18 |
$ 44.66 |
$55.91 |
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Mar 19 |
$
43.96 |
$ 54.43 |
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Mar 20 |
$ 45.72 |
$ 55.32 |
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Mar 23 |
$ 47.45 |
$ 55.92 |
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Mar 24 |
$ 47.51 |
$
55.11 |
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Mar 25 |
$ 49.21 |
$ 56.48 |
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Mar 26 |
$ 51.43 |
$ 59.19 |
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Mar 27 |
$ 48.87 |
$ 56.41 |
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Mar 30 |
$ 48.68 |
$ 56.29 |
Average
Brent Crude for March:
$ 57.03. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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|
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
|
January |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
|
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
|
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
|
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
|
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
|
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
|
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
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$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
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$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
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$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Mar 27/15 |
$ 48.87 |
105.1 |
89.2 |
122.9 |
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Mar 27/14 |
$101.28 |
136.8 |
114.3 |
152.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
-52.41 |
-31.7 |
-25.1 |
-29.1 |
|
% Change |
-51.7% |
-23.2% |
-22.0% |
-19.1% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude prices have
escalated somewhat in recent days being impacted as of late
by a softened US dollar and market reaction to geopolitical
issues in the Middle East. Recent tensions between
Saudi Arabia and Yemen have generated concerns relative to
the potential for Middle East crude production and
transportation interruptions.
Refined product pricing continues to be impacted by regional
market dynamics. Platts reported reduced US gasoline
inventories has pressured NYMEX pricing as of late.
Alternatively, the arrival of spring coupled with surplus
inventory levels has resulted in reduced wholesale pricing
of distillates over the past two weeks.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued March 25, 2015, reported an increase in US crude stocks
of 8,170,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 2,014,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period.
US
distillate inventories decreased by 34,000 barrels.
Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period
by 641,000 b/d.
US refinery utilization rates increased by 0.9% to
89.0% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+8,170,000 |
+22.0% |
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Gasoline |
-2,014,000 |
+7.5% |
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Distillates |
+34,000 |
+12.0% |
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Source: DOE March 25, 2015 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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