MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 March 31, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Mar 20

 $ 48.22

$ 51.62
 

Mar 21

 $ 47.34

$ 50.96
 

Mar 22

 $ 48.04

$ 50.64
 

Mar 23

 $ 47.70

$ 50.56
 

Mar 24

 $ 47.97

$ 50.80
 

Mar 27

 $ 47.73

$ 50.75
 

Mar 28

 $ 48.37

$ 51.33
 

Mar 29

 $ 49.51

$ 52.42
 

Mar 30

 $ 50.35

$ 52.96
 Average Brent Crude for March: $ 52.53
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April    $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May    $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June    $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July    $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Mar 28, 2017 $ 48.37 103.7 77.4 113.9
Mar 28, 2016 $ 39.79 90.7 72.7 103.4
YOY Diff. +8.58 +13.0 +4.7 +10.5
% Change +21.6% +14.3% +6.5% +10.2%

Commentary:


Crude oil prices remained relatively stable over past two weeks with the indication of a possible extension of an OPEC production cutback agreement offset by continued rising domestic US production.  Indeed the growth of crude inventory levels at Cushing has contributed to the spread between Brent and WTI market pricing and has lead to increased exports of US crude to Asia which, to a degree, has served to undermine OPEC efforts to rebalance global supply and demand.

With regard to refined production, an extension of winter weather conditions lately has served to increase demand and related market pricing for distillate products while a number of temporary supply interruptions have influenced gasoline pricing as of late.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued  March 29, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 867,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 3,747,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied demand increased 324,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 2,483,000 barrels.

US refinery utilization rates increased by 1.98 to 89.3% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +867,000 +6.0%

Gasoline

 -3,747,000 -1.2%

Distillates

 -2,483,000 -5.1%
Source: DOE March 29, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate