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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 12, 2013
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
Apr 1 |
$97.07 |
|
Apr 2 |
$97.19 |
|
Apr 3 |
$94.45 |
|
Apr 4 |
$93.26 |
|
Apr 5 |
$92.70 |
|
Apr 8 |
$93.36 |
|
Apr 9 |
$94.20 |
|
Apr 10 |
$94.64 |
|
Apr 11 |
$93.51 |
Average
Brent Crude for April:
$106.70. |
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
January |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
$89.44 |
February |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
$88.83 |
March |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
$102.74 |
April |
$ 94.49 |
$103.18 |
$109.67 |
May |
|
$
95.47 |
$101.29 |
June |
|
$
82.28 |
$96.40 |
July |
|
$
87.93 |
$97.43 |
August |
|
$
94.05 |
$86.23 |
September |
|
$
94.74 |
$86.13 |
October |
|
$
89.72 |
$86.10 |
November |
|
$
85.87 |
$96.86 |
December |
|
$
88.06 |
$98.51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Apr 10/13 |
$ 94.64 |
133.3 |
106.3 |
142.4 |
Apr 10/12 |
$101.02 |
133.4 |
107.7 |
132.3 |
YOY Diff. |
- 6.38 |
-0.1 |
-1.4 |
+10.1 |
% Change |
-6.3% |
% |
-1.3% |
+7.6% |
|
|
Commentary: |
Crude
prices have softened since April 1 (down $2.59 or 3%) and
primarily due to release of unfavourable North American and
European economic data. Refined product wholesale pricing
has dropped, as well as a combination of increased imports,
increased domestic production and reduced demand has
resulted in increased inventory levels. The increased
domestic production is related to the post-maintenance
increased refinery utilization which for the Atlantic Coast
now stands at 88.3%. The increased imports appear to be
related to the dumping of European winter gas in New York
Harbour. Reduced demand observed is directly related to the
sluggish recovery of the U.S. economy.
|
Economic Data: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The U.S. Energy
Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment,
issued April 10, 2013, reported a small increase in U.S.
commercial crude stocks of 250,000 million barrels.
U.S. commercial crude inventory levels are at a 22 year
high. The last time inventory levels were at this level
was July, 1990. U.S. gasoline inventories
increased over the previous reporting period. A small
increase in refinery utilization ("production") and
reduced demand are noted in the DOE report. Analysts
had expected a decline in inventory as seasonal
inventory draws are generally expected this time of year
when wholesalers build inventories to supply summer
driving season. Distillate inventories
decreased slightly with demand slightly decreased.
During the period production increased slightly. Refinery utilization increased slightly to 86.3% of
production capacity.
|
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year % Change |
|
|
|
|
Crude |
+250,000 |
+6.5% |
|
|
|
|
Gasoline |
+1,699,000 |
+2.2% |
|
|
|
|
Distillates |
-169,000 |
-14.4% |
|
|
|
|
Source: DOE April 10, 2013 |
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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