MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 12, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 



Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Apr 1

$97.07

 

 Apr 2 

$97.19

 

Apr 3

$94.45

 

Apr 4

$93.26

 

Apr 5

$92.70

 

Apr 8

$93.36

 

Apr 9

$94.20

 

Apr 10

$94.64

 

Apr 11

$93.51

 Average Brent Crude for April: $106.70.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 94.49  $103.18  $109.67
May    $ 95.47  $101.29
June    $ 82.28  $96.40
July    $ 87.93  $97.43
August    $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Apr 10/13 $ 94.64 133.3 106.3 142.4
Apr 10/12 $101.02 133.4 107.7 132.3
YOY Diff. - 6.38 -0.1 -1.4 +10.1
% Change -6.3% % -1.3% +7.6%

Commentary:

Crude prices have softened since April 1 (down $2.59 or 3%) and primarily due to release of unfavourable North American and European economic data.  Refined product wholesale pricing has dropped, as well as a combination of increased imports, increased domestic production and reduced demand has resulted in increased inventory levels.  The increased domestic production is related to the post-maintenance increased refinery utilization which for the Atlantic Coast now stands at 88.3%.  The increased imports appear to be related to the dumping of European winter gas in New York Harbour.  Reduced demand observed is directly related to the sluggish recovery of the U.S. economy.


Economic Data
:


1. Platts Inventory Update:

The U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued April 10, 2013, reported a small increase in U.S. commercial crude stocks of 250,000 million barrels.  U.S. commercial crude inventory levels are at a 22 year high. The last time inventory levels were at this level was July, 1990.
 
U.S. gasoline inventories increased over the previous reporting period.  A small increase in refinery utilization ("production") and reduced demand are noted in the DOE report.  Analysts had expected a decline in inventory as seasonal inventory draws are generally expected this time of year when wholesalers build inventories to supply summer driving season.
 
Distillate inventories decreased slightly with demand slightly decreased.  During the period production increased slightly.
 
Refinery utilization increased slightly to 86.3% of production capacity.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

     
 

Crude

+250,000 +6.5%      
 

Gasoline

+1,699,000 +2.2%      
 

Distillates

-169,000 -14.4%      
Source: DOE April 10, 2013

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate