MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 13, 2012

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Mar 30

$103.02
 

Apr 2

$105.23
 

Apr 3

$104.01
 

Apr 4

$101.47
 

Apr 5

$103.31
 

Apr 9

$102.46
 

Apr 10

$101.02
 

Apr 11

$102.70
 

Apr 12

$103.64
 Average Brent Crude for April is $122.68. 
 
  Average Average Average
  2012 2011 2010
January  $100.51  $89.44  $78.40
February  $102.26  $88.83  $76.16
March  $106.68  $102.74  $81.12
April  $102.89  $109.67  $84.46
May    $101.29  $74.14
June    $96.40  $75.39
July    $97.43  $73.95
August    $86.23  $77.00
September    $86.13  $75.55
October   $86.10  $81.99
November   $96.86  $84.25
December   $98.51  $89.09
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Apr 11/12 $102.70 133.4 107.7 131.3
Apr 11/11 $109.92 121.2 103.4 128.4
YOY Diff. -7.22 +12.2 +4.3 +2.9
% Change -6.5% +10% +4% +2%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


The most recent weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued April 11, 2012, reported an increase in crude inventory levels. Crude inventory levels rose by 2.791 million barrels. During the period the DOE noted reduced imports and reduced refinery throughput. U.S. gasoline inventories declined this past week by 4.277 million barrels. The largest decline in gasoline inventories occurred in the U.S. Atlantic Coast. U.S. refinery utilization declined by 1.9 percent. Stocks of distillate product fell by 4.0 million barrels, a large decrease. Distillate inventories on the Atlantic coast continue to be significantly below year ago levels.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
 

 Crude

 +2,791,000 +1.6%
 

 Gasoline

 -4,277,000 +3.8%
 

Distillates

 -4,000,000 -12.6%

MasterCard, in its weekly SpendingPulse report stated that gasoline demand fell by 0.8 percent last week. U.S. gasoline demand year to date is 2.4 percent below year ago levels. Gas prices in the U.S. averaged 2 cents higher at $3.94/gallon. U.S. Dept. of Energy expects gasoline prices to peak in May around $4.01/gallon. 

2.  U.S Economic Highlights:
 

Some economic signals on the U.S. economy:

  • The Federal Reserve's most recent report on the U.S. economy described growth for the period ended in March as modest to moderate with concerns noted related to the impact rising energy prices may have on consumers discretionary spending.

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve meets on April 23-24 to consider whether a change in interest rate policy is warranted as well as further quantitative easing in lending.

  • U.S. Labour Information:

i. The most recent U.S. jobs report noted only 120,000 jobs created in March, the lowest level since last October.
ii. Unemployment claims increased 13,000 to 380,000 for the week end April 7, an amount greater than analysts' expectations.
iii. Employers added half as many new jobs in March as were created in February.
iv. Employers JC Penny announced it will eliminate 1,000 jobs, Sears announced it will close 62 of its 4,010 stores and Best Buy announced it will close 50 of its big box locations.

  • Application for U.S. home mortgages fell last week despite a drop in the average interest rate for 30-year mortgages.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil