MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 14, 2015

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Apr 1

 $ 50.09

$57.10
 

Apr 2

 $ 49.14

$ 54.95
 

Apr 6

 $ 52.14

$ 58.12
 

Apr 7

 $ 53.98

$ 59.10
 

Apr 8

 $ 50.42

$ 55.55
 

Apr 9

 $ 50.79

$ 56.57
 

Apr 10

 $ 51.64

$ 57.87
 

Apr 13

 $ 51.91

$ 57.93
 Average Brent Crude for April: $ 57.15.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2015 2014 2013
January  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.26  $102.15  $ 89.59
May    $101.79  $ 94.93
June    $105.14  $ 95.76
July   $102.39  $104.68
August   $ 96.08  $106.49
September   $ 93.03  $106.24
October   $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Apr 10/15 $ 51.64 105.1 86.7 120.0
Apr 10/14 $103.40 135.1 113.3 150.8
YOY Diff. -51.76 -30.0 -26.6 -30.8
% Change -50.1% -22.2% -23.5% -20.4%

Commentary:


Despite some fluctuation due to the on again/off again Iranian nuclear sanctions deal, the price of crude has remained relatively stable over the past two weeks.  Even with a reduction in shale field oil rig counts, domestic US crude production continues at a record setting pace.  Accordingly, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, has maintained its production levels and will in all likelihood at least until its next scheduled meeting in June.

Refined product prices continue to be sensitive to seasonal demand trends with wholesale gasoline prices facing upward pressures due to increased seasonal demand and the conversion to more expensive summer grade products.  Wholesale distillate prices should continue to fall off as heating season winds down.
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate