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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 14, 2016
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Apr 1 |
$ 36.79 |
$ 38.67 |
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Apr 4 |
$ 35.70 |
$ 37.69 |
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Apr 5 |
$ 35.89 |
$ 37.87 |
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Apr 6 |
$ 37.75 |
$ 39.84 |
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Apr 7 |
$ 37.26 |
$
39.43 |
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Apr 8 |
$ 39.72 |
$ 41.94 |
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Apr 11 |
$ 40.36 |
$ 42.83 |
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Apr 12 |
$ 42.17 |
$ 44.69 |
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Apr 13 |
$ 41.76 |
$ 44.18 |
Average
Brent Crude for April:
$ 40.79 |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
Average |
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2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
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January |
$ 31.67 |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
$ 30.45 |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
$ 37.94 |
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
$ 38.60 |
$ 54.63 |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
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$ 59.37 |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
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$ 59.76 |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
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$ 50.93 |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
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$ 42.89 |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
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$ 45.48 |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
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$ 46.29 |
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
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$ 42.94 |
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
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$ 37.33 |
$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Apr 13/16 |
$ 41.76 |
97.6 |
72.7 |
103.4 |
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Apr 13/15 |
$ 51.91 |
105.1 |
86.7 |
120.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
-10.15 |
-7.5 |
-14.0 |
-16.6 |
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% Change |
-19.6% |
-7.1% |
-16.1% |
-13.8% |
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Commentary: |
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Both Brent and WTI
crude futures are trading up 15% since April 1. The
much anticipated Russian/Saudi Arabian production freeze
agreement has been the predominant market factor over the
past two weeks. Continued reduction of the number of
operational US shale field drilling rigs coupled with a
steady, albeit, gradual decline in US continental domestic
crude production (now down to 8.6 million barrels per day
from a high of almost 10.0 million barrels per day) has also
lent support to crude trading values. Recent evidence
of Russia producing at record level highs and of Kuwait
wanting to increase production by at least 100,000 bpd
coupled with Iran and Iraq's stated intention to increase
production has served to cast doubt on the sustainability of
the recent rally. Additionally, a large volume of
North Sea crude currently in temporary storage and about to
enter the market in the near future could serve to undermine
trading values.
With
regard to refined product, continued indications of
increased demand for gasoline coupled with the transition to
summer grade production has served to exert upward pressure
on gasoline pricing as of late. The reverse scenario
of reduced demand for distillate products has resulted in
lower wholesale trading prices for both furnace oil and
diesel.
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Economic Data: |
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1. Platts Inventory
Update:
The US
Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory
assessment, issued April 13, 2016, reported an increase in US
crude stocks of 6,634,000 barrels.
US gasoline
inventories decreased by 4,237,000 barrels over the previous
reporting period. Implied demand increased by 409,000 b/d.
US distillate inventories
increased by 505,000 barrels.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+6,634,000 |
+10.9% |
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Gasoline |
-4,237,000 |
+5.2% |
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Distillates |
505,000 |
+26.8% |
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Source: DOE April 13, 2016 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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