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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 29, 2016
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Apr 18 |
$ 36.78 |
$ 42.91 |
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Apr 19 |
$ 41.08 |
$ 44.03 |
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Apr 20 |
$ 42.63 |
$ 45.80 |
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Apr 21 |
$ 43.18 |
$ 44.53 |
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Apr 22 |
$ 43.73 |
$
45.11 |
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Apr 25 |
$ 42.64 |
$ 44.48 |
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Apr 26 |
$ 44.04 |
$ 45.74 |
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Apr 27 |
$ 45.33 |
$ 47.18 |
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Apr 28 |
$ 46.03 |
$ 48.14 |
Average
Brent Crude for April:
$ 43.10. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
Average |
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2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
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January |
$ 31.67 |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
$ 30.45 |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
$ 37.94 |
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
$ 40.89 |
$ 54.63 |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
|
$ 59.37 |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
|
$ 59.76 |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
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$ 50.93 |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
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$ 42.89 |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
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$ 45.48 |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
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$ 46.29 |
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
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$ 42.94 |
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
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$ 37.33 |
$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Apr 28/16 |
$ 46.03 |
101.6 |
66.7 |
97.7 |
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Apr 28/15 |
$ 57.06 |
109.7 |
83.7 |
114.9 |
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YOY Diff. |
-11.03 |
-8.1 |
-17.0 |
-17.2 |
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% Change |
-19.3% |
-7.4% |
-20.3% |
-15.0% |
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Commentary: |
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Both
Brent and WTI crude pricing have appreciated in trading
value over this most recent two-week period with Brent up
$4.08 or 9.5% and WTI $4.97 or 12.3%. Following the
collapse of the Russian/Saudi Arabian initiative to freeze
production output levels, the primary drivers of trading
values have been 1) temporary supply interruptions in
Kuwait, Nigeria and the North Sea; 2) continued reduction of
domestic US produced crude levels, and 3) the fluctuating
valuation of the US dollar. Notwithstanding, crude is
now trading at levels not seen since last November.
With
US demand for gasoline up 3.9% over year ago levels, the
onset of spring/summer driving season coupled with the
production of more expensive summer grade gasoline has seen
a steady increase in the wholesale price of gasoline.
With
farming activities now set to resume in North America,
increased demand for diesel will no doubt add an upward
pressure on diesel pricing.
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Economic Data: |
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1. Platts Inventory
Update:
The US
Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory
assessment, issued April 27, 2016, reported an increase in US
crude stocks of 1,999,000 barrels.
US gasoline
inventories increased by 1,608,000 barrels over the previous
reporting period.
US distillate inventories
decreased by 1,695,000 barrels.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+1,999,000 |
+10.1% |
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Gasoline |
+1,608,000 |
+6.1% |
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Distillates |
-1,695,000 |
+22.4% |
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Source: DOE April 27, 2016 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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