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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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April 17 |
$50.33 |
April 20 |
$45.88 |
April 21 |
$46.51 |
April 22 |
$48.85 |
April 23 |
$49.62 |
April 24 |
$51.55 |
April 27 |
$50.14 |
April 28 |
$49.92 |
April 29 |
$50.97 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
January |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
February |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
March |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
April |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
May |
|
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
June |
|
$134.02 |
$67.46 |
July |
|
$134.29 |
$73.80 |
August |
|
$116.81 |
$72.17 |
September |
|
$104.27 |
$79.52 |
October |
|
$76.72 |
$85.19 |
November |
|
$57.44 |
$94.95 |
December |
|
$42.17 |
$91.24 |
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Commentary: |
With adequate supply and continued
slumping demand, crude prices have shown more sensitivity to equity
market fluctuation than traditional supply and demand fundamentals as of
late. Accordingly, with equity markets fluctuating on a daily basis
based on the economic news of the day, crude prices have floated above
and below the $50 mark over the past two weeks. With regard to refined
product, gas prices, while being sensitive to anemic demand, have shown
surprising resilience due to reduced refinery output and restricted
imports as of late. Furnace oil prices continue to soften in light of
record setting temperatures and diesel spot markets react to increased
domestic U.S. production coupled with increased imports from Eastern
Canada.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Apr. 28/09 |
$49.92 |
86.7 |
66.1 |
91.5 |
Apr. 28/08 |
$118.75 |
125.0 |
107.0 |
137.0 |
YOY Diff. |
-68.83 |
-38.3 |
-40.9 |
-45.5 |
% Change |
-58% |
-31% |
-38% |
-33% |
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1. DOE Report - April 28, 2009 |
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|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over
Year |
Crude |
+4,100,000 |
+17.0% |
Gasoline |
-4,700,000 |
+0.7% |
Distillates |
+1,800,000 |
+36.0% |
Demand:
Gasoline demand down 0.1% vs. past four weeks
and 0.5% Year over Year. |
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2. Demand related: |
• For the week ended April 17, petroleum consumption
dropped by more than 2 million barrels per day, compared with the same
period last year. The four week average use of 18.5 million barrels per
day is the smallest draw since May, 1999.
• The International Monetary Fund reported on Wednesday that oil
consumption will be down in the U.S. and China and other industrialized
countries throughout the first half of 2009 compared with the same
period in 2008. Consumption in the latter half of the year will be down
another 610,000 barrels a day in the U.S. alone.
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3.
Economic News: |
• The U.S. government reported on Wednesday that the economy shrank at a
worse-than-expected 6.1% pace at the start of this year. The Commerce
Department report indicated that a rebound in consumer spending was
overwhelmed by cutbacks in business spending and the biggest drop in
U.S. exports in 40 years.
• The U.S. Labor Department reported last Thursday that initial claims
for unemployment compensation rose to a seasonally adjusted 640,000, up
from a revised 613,000 last week. The number of workers continuing to
file claims for unemployment benefits topped 6.1 million.
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Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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