MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2009

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.



Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
April 17 $50.33 April 20 $45.88 April 21 $46.51
April 22 $48.85 April 23 $49.62 April 24 $51.55
April 27 $50.14 April 28 $49.92 April 29 $50.97
 
  Average Average Average
  2009 2008 2007
January $41.96 $93.06 $54.43
February $38.58 $95.34 $59.42
March  $47.96 $105.62 $60.86
April  $49.82 $110.72 $64.08
May   $124.98 $63.54
June   $134.02 $67.46
July   $134.29 $73.80
August   $116.81 $72.17
September   $104.27 $79.52
October   $76.72 $85.19
November   $57.44 $94.95
December   $42.17 $91.24

Commentary:

With adequate supply and continued slumping demand, crude prices have shown more sensitivity to equity market fluctuation than traditional supply and demand fundamentals as of late. Accordingly, with equity markets fluctuating on a daily basis based on the economic news of the day, crude prices have floated above and below the $50 mark over the past two weeks. With regard to refined product, gas prices, while being sensitive to anemic demand, have shown surprising resilience due to reduced refinery output and restricted imports as of late. Furnace oil prices continue to soften in light of record setting temperatures and diesel spot markets react to increased domestic U.S. production coupled with increased imports from Eastern Canada.

  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Apr. 28/09       $49.92 86.7 66.1 91.5
Apr. 28/08 $118.75 125.0 107.0 137.0
YOY Diff. -68.83 -38.3 -40.9 -45.5
% Change -58% -31% -38% -33%

 


1.  DOE Report - April 28, 2009
 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
Crude +4,100,000 +17.0%
Gasoline -4,700,000 +0.7%
Distillates +1,800,000 +36.0%
Demand: Gasoline demand down 0.1% vs. past four weeks and 0.5% Year over Year.

2. Demand related:

• For the week ended April 17, petroleum consumption dropped by more than 2 million barrels per day, compared with the same period last year. The four week average use of 18.5 million barrels per day is the smallest draw since May, 1999.
• The International Monetary Fund reported on Wednesday that oil consumption will be down in the U.S. and China and other industrialized countries throughout the first half of 2009 compared with the same period in 2008. Consumption in the latter half of the year will be down another 610,000 barrels a day in the U.S. alone.


3.  Economic News:

• The U.S. government reported on Wednesday that the economy shrank at a worse-than-expected 6.1% pace at the start of this year. The Commerce Department report indicated that a rebound in consumer spending was overwhelmed by cutbacks in business spending and the biggest drop in U.S. exports in 40 years.
• The U.S. Labor Department reported last Thursday that initial claims for unemployment compensation rose to a seasonally adjusted 640,000, up from a revised 613,000 last week. The number of workers continuing to file claims for unemployment benefits topped 6.1 million.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil