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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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April 19 |
$81.45 |
April 20 |
$83.45 |
April 21 |
$83.68 |
April 22 |
$83.70 |
April 23 |
$85.12 |
April 26 |
$84.20 |
April 27 |
$82.44 |
April 28 |
$83.22 |
April 29 |
$85.17 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
March |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
April |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
May |
|
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
June |
|
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
July |
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$63.93 |
$134.29 |
August |
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$71.04 |
$116.81 |
September |
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$69.08 |
$104.27 |
October |
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$75.56 |
$76.72 |
November |
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$78.31 |
$57.44 |
December |
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$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
Global crude prices
continued to average in the mid-eighty dollar range over this past two
weeks as adequacy of supply and modest demand growth continued to
characterize world oil markets. Indeed the fluctuating value of the U.S.
dollar with its reaction to conflicting news of either the signs of
global economic recovery or demonstrative concern over the European debt
crisis proved to be the most dominant influence on crude trading values.
Refined product wholesale prices were relatively stable as distillates
stocks grew, while nominally increased demand for gasoline was offset by
increased refinery yields.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Apr 28/10 |
$83.22 |
105.0 |
79.3 |
102.7 |
Apr 28/09 |
$49.92 |
86.7 |
66.1 |
91.5 |
YOY Diff. |
+33.30 |
+18.3 |
+13.2 |
+11.2 |
% Change |
+67.0% |
+21.0% |
+20.0% |
+12.0% |
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1. DOE Report
April 28, 2010: |
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
Crude |
+1,900,000 |
-4.5% |
Gasoline |
-1,200,000 |
+5.0% |
Distillates |
+2,900,000 |
+5.3% |
Refinery Yield:
88.95% v. 85.93% last week
Demand: Up 1.5% v. last week and up 1.2% year over year |
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2. Demand Related:
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• Retail gasoline demand in the U.S. dropped by 2.7% for the week ended
April 23 according to the latest Spending Pulse data by MasterCard
Advisors. Year to date consumption, however, was up 1.2% according to
MasterCard.
• The Air Transport Association of America reported last week that the
recent volcanic ash intercontinental flight interruptions grounded
thousands of cross Atlantic flights. As of Tuesday April 20, a total of
1604 U.S. carrier flights were scrubbed. A roughly equal number of
foreign carrier flights were also impacted. The Boeing 767 is the key
aircraft used between New York and London and typically burns between
10,000 and 12,000 gallons during each flight.
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3. Economic:
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• The U.S. Commerce Department reported this week that new home sales in
the U.S. rose 27% in March. Additionally, the National Association of
Realtors reported that sales of existing homes also rose for the same
month.
• Despite incurring huge losses from oil investments in 2008 and 2009,
institutional investors put nearly $115 billion into oil based indexes
in 2009, buying nearly 400 million barrels in oil.
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Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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