MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2010

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
April 19 $81.45 April 20 $83.45 April 21 $83.68
April 22 $83.70 April 23 $85.12 April 26 $84.20
April 27 $82.44 April 28 $83.22 April 29 $85.17
 
  Average Average Average
  2010 2009 2008
January  $78.40 $41.96 $93.06
February  $76.16 $38.58 $95.34
March  $81.12  $47.96 $105.62
April  $84.46  $49.82 $110.72
May    $55.96 $124.98
June    $69.60 $134.02
July    $63.93 $134.29
August    $71.04 $116.81
September    $69.08 $104.27
October    $75.56 $76.72
November    $78.31 $57.44
December    $73.88 $42.17

Commentary:


Global crude prices continued to average in the mid-eighty dollar range over this past two weeks as adequacy of supply and modest demand growth continued to characterize world oil markets. Indeed the fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar with its reaction to conflicting news of either the signs of global economic recovery or demonstrative concern over the European debt crisis proved to be the most dominant influence on crude trading values. Refined product wholesale prices were relatively stable as distillates stocks grew, while nominally increased demand for gasoline was offset by increased refinery yields.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Apr 28/10       $83.22 105.0 79.3 102.7
Apr 28/09 $49.92 86.7 66.1 91.5
YOY Diff. +33.30 +18.3 +13.2 +11.2
% Change +67.0% +21.0% +20.0% +12.0%

 


1.  DOE Report
April 28, 2010:

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year

Crude

+1,900,000 -4.5%

Gasoline

-1,200,000 +5.0%

Distillates

+2,900,000 +5.3%

Refinery  Yield:  88.95% v. 85.93% last week
Demand:  Up 1.5% v. last week and up 1.2% year over year


2. Demand Related:
 

• Retail gasoline demand in the U.S. dropped by 2.7% for the week ended April 23 according to the latest Spending Pulse data by MasterCard Advisors. Year to date consumption, however, was up 1.2% according to MasterCard.
• The Air Transport Association of America reported last week that the recent volcanic ash intercontinental flight interruptions grounded thousands of cross Atlantic flights. As of Tuesday April 20, a total of 1604 U.S. carrier flights were scrubbed. A roughly equal number of foreign carrier flights were also impacted. The Boeing 767 is the key aircraft used between New York and London and typically burns between 10,000 and 12,000 gallons during each flight.


3. Economic:
 

• The U.S. Commerce Department reported this week that new home sales in the U.S. rose 27% in March. Additionally, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes also rose for the same month.
• Despite incurring huge losses from oil investments in 2008 and 2009, institutional investors put nearly $115 billion into oil based indexes in 2009, buying nearly 400 million barrels in oil.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil