MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 



Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Apr 16

$88.72

 

 Apr 17

$86.68

 

Apr 18

$87.73

 

Apr 19

$88.01

 

Apr 22

$88.76

 

Apr 23

$89.18

 

Apr 24

$91.43

 

Apr 25

$93.64

 

Apr 26

$93.00

 Average Brent Crude for April: $103.46.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May    $ 95.47  $101.29
June    $ 82.28  $96.40
July    $ 87.93  $97.43
August    $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Apr 26/13 $ 93.00 126.4 98.8 133.8
Apr 26/12 $104.56 129.2 105.7 130.7
YOY Diff. -11.56 -2.8 -6.9 +3.1
% Change -11.1% -2.2% -6.5% +2.4%

Commentary:

Crude pricing (WTI) has risen $4.29 per barrel or almost 5% over the past two weeks as speculative activity fueled by rumours of an OPEC production cutback coupled with a weakened US dollar exerted upward pressure on the market.  Notwithstanding, refined product wholesale prices have been relatively stable with increased inventories and declining demand characterizing the market initially and reduced capacity related to non-maintenance related refinery interruptions impacting market activity in more recent days.  The onset of the summer driving season should serve to exert an upward pressure on gasoline prices in the coming thirty days though a weakened North American economy may serve to mitigate same.


Economic Data
:


1. Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued April 24, 2013, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 947,000 million barrels.  US crude inventory levels are at historically high levels with strong domestic production in addition to increased imports.
 
US gasoline inventories decreased significantly over the previous reporting period with a significant jump in implied demand for road fuel.  This decline in gasoline inventories is consistent with market expectations as mid-market wholesalers draw inventory in preparation for the summer driving season.  All US reporting regions, except the US Atlantic coast zone, experienced the decline in gasoline inventories.
 
Distillate inventories increased slightly with implied demand slightly decreased coupled with a decline in imports.
 
Refinery utilization decreased slightly to 83.5% of production capacity.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

     
 

Crude

+947,000 +4.2%      
 

Gasoline

-3,930,000 +2.9%      
 

Distillates

+97,000 -8.5%      
Source: DOE April 24, 2013

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate