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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2013
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
Apr 16 |
$88.72 |
|
Apr 17 |
$86.68 |
|
Apr 18 |
$87.73 |
|
Apr 19 |
$88.01 |
|
Apr 22 |
$88.76 |
|
Apr 23 |
$89.18 |
|
Apr 24 |
$91.43 |
|
Apr 25 |
$93.64 |
|
Apr 26 |
$93.00 |
Average
Brent Crude for April:
$103.46. |
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
January |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
$89.44 |
February |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
$88.83 |
March |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
$102.74 |
April |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
$109.67 |
May |
|
$
95.47 |
$101.29 |
June |
|
$
82.28 |
$96.40 |
July |
|
$
87.93 |
$97.43 |
August |
|
$
94.05 |
$86.23 |
September |
|
$
94.74 |
$86.13 |
October |
|
$
89.72 |
$86.10 |
November |
|
$
85.87 |
$96.86 |
December |
|
$
88.06 |
$98.51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Apr 26/13 |
$ 93.00 |
126.4 |
98.8 |
133.8 |
Apr 26/12 |
$104.56 |
129.2 |
105.7 |
130.7 |
YOY Diff. |
-11.56 |
-2.8 |
-6.9 |
+3.1 |
% Change |
-11.1% |
-2.2% |
-6.5% |
+2.4% |
|
|
Commentary: |
Crude
pricing (WTI) has risen $4.29 per barrel or almost 5% over
the past two weeks as speculative activity fueled by rumours
of an OPEC production cutback coupled with a weakened US
dollar exerted upward pressure on the market.
Notwithstanding, refined product wholesale prices have been
relatively stable with increased inventories and declining
demand characterizing the market initially and reduced
capacity related to non-maintenance related refinery
interruptions impacting market activity in more recent
days. The onset of the summer driving season should serve
to exert an upward pressure on gasoline prices in the coming
thirty days though a weakened North American economy may
serve to mitigate same.
|
Economic Data: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The
US Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory
assessment, issued April 24, 2013, reported an increase
in US crude stocks of 947,000 million barrels. US crude
inventory levels are at historically high levels with
strong domestic production in addition to increased
imports. US gasoline inventories decreased
significantly over the previous reporting period with a
significant jump in implied demand for road fuel. This
decline in gasoline inventories is consistent with
market expectations as mid-market wholesalers draw
inventory in preparation for the summer driving season.
All US reporting regions, except the US Atlantic coast
zone, experienced the decline in gasoline inventories.
Distillate inventories increased slightly with
implied demand slightly decreased coupled with a decline
in imports. Refinery utilization decreased
slightly to 83.5% of production capacity.
|
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year % Change |
|
|
|
|
Crude |
+947,000 |
+4.2% |
|
|
|
|
Gasoline |
-3,930,000 |
+2.9% |
|
|
|
|
Distillates |
+97,000 |
-8.5% |
|
|
|
|
Source: DOE April 24, 2013 |
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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