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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
|
WTI |
Brent |
|
Apr 16 |
$103.76 |
$109.60 |
|
Apr 17 |
$104.30 |
$109.53 |
|
Apr 21 |
$104.37 |
$109.95 |
|
Apr 22 |
$102.13 |
$109.27 |
|
Apr 23 |
$101.44 |
$109.11 |
|
Apr 24 |
$101.94 |
$110.33 |
|
Apr 25 |
$100.60 |
$109.58 |
|
Apr 28 |
$100.84 |
$108.12 |
|
Apr 29 |
$101.28 |
$108.98 |
Average
Brent Crude for April:
$108.09. |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
April |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
May |
|
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
June |
|
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
July |
|
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
October |
|
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
November |
|
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Apr 29/14 |
$101.28 |
139.7 |
113.3 |
145.0 |
Apr 29/13 |
$ 94.50 |
126.4 |
98.8 |
133.8 |
YOY Diff. |
+6.78 |
+13.3 |
+14.5 |
+11.2 |
% Change |
+7.2% |
+10.5% |
+14.7% |
+8.4% |
|
|
Commentary: |
Relative stability in crude prices observed over the past
two weeks as increased Russian/Ukrainian geo-political
tensions have been largely offset by the resumption of crude
exports from Libya. Domestically, the impact of the
fall in the U.S. dollar has been mitigated by continued
increases in North American crude production and inventory
build.
Wholesale rack pricing of refined product and gasoline in
particular have risen dramatically over this same two week
period. Prolonged unseasonably cold weather resulted
in a delay of the traditional spring changeover on the part
of North American refineries from high distillate production
patterns to high gasoline yields. This served to
pressure spring gasoline inventory levels.
Additionally, the diversion of Atlantic Coast bound gasoline
cargoes to Southern U.S. markets due to Gulf of Mexico
production and supply distribution issues increased YOY
ethanol costs and the fall in the value of the Canadian
dollar further pressured Atlantic Coast rack pricing.
It is hoped that increased domestic refinery production
coupled with the imminent arrival of water borne European
refined product cargoes will serve to ease current market
pressures.
|
Economic Data: |
|
The US Energy Department
("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued
April 23, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of
3,520,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 274,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting
period by 186,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories increased by 597,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 2.2 percent to
91.% of capacity.
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year % Change |
|
Crude |
+3,520,000 |
+2.3% |
|
Gasoline |
-274,000 |
-3.6% |
|
Distillates |
+597,000 |
-2.4% |
|
Source: DOE April 23, 2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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