MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2014

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 



Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Apr 16

$103.76

$109.60

 

Apr 17

$104.30

$109.53

 

Apr 21

$104.37

$109.95

 

Apr 22

$102.13

$109.27

 

Apr 23

$101.44

$109.11

 

Apr 24

$101.94

$110.33

 

Apr 25

$100.60

$109.58

 

Apr 28

$100.84

$108.12

  Apr 29 $101.28 $108.98
 Average Brent Crude for April: $108.09.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2014 2013 2012
January  $ 94.73  $ 94.70  $100.51
February  $100.57  $ 95.50  $102.26
March  $100.46  $ 92.73  $106.36
April  $102.15  $ 89.59  $103.18
May    $ 94.93  $ 95.47
June    $ 95.76  $ 82.28
July    $104.68  $ 87.93
August    $106.49  $ 94.05
September    $106.24  $ 94.74
October    $100.74  $ 89.72
November    $ 94.00  $ 85.87
December    $ 97.87  $ 88.06
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Apr 29/14 $101.28 139.7 113.3 145.0
Apr 29/13 $ 94.50 126.4 98.8 133.8
YOY Diff. +6.78 +13.3 +14.5 +11.2
% Change +7.2% +10.5% +14.7% +8.4%

Commentary:


Relative stability in crude prices observed over the past two weeks as increased Russian/Ukrainian geo-political tensions have been largely offset by the resumption of crude exports from Libya.  Domestically, the impact of the fall in the U.S. dollar has been mitigated by continued increases in North American crude production and inventory build.

Wholesale rack pricing of refined product and gasoline in particular have risen dramatically over this same two week period.  Prolonged unseasonably cold weather resulted in a delay of the traditional spring changeover on the part of North American refineries from high distillate production patterns to high gasoline yields.  This served to pressure spring gasoline inventory levels.  Additionally, the diversion of Atlantic Coast bound gasoline cargoes to Southern U.S. markets due to Gulf of Mexico production and supply distribution issues increased YOY ethanol costs and the fall in the value of the Canadian dollar further pressured Atlantic Coast rack pricing.  It is hoped that increased domestic refinery production coupled with the imminent arrival of water borne European refined product cargoes will serve to ease current market pressures.


Economic Data:

Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued April 23, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 3,520,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 274,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period by 186,000 b/d.

US distillate inventories increased by 597,000 barrels. 

US refinery utilization increased by 2.2 percent to 91.% of capacity.
 
DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

 

Crude

+3,520,000 +2.3%
 

Gasoline

-274,000 -3.6%
 

Distillates

+597,000 -2.4%
Source: DOE April 23, 2014

 

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate