|
|
MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
April 30, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
|
Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
|
|
WTI |
Brent |
|
|
Apr 20 |
$ 56.38 |
$ 63.45 |
|
|
Apr 21 |
$ 55.26 |
$ 62.08 |
|
|
Apr 22 |
$ 56.16 |
$ 62.73 |
|
|
Apr 23 |
$ 57.74 |
$ 64.85 |
|
|
Apr 24 |
$ 57.15 |
$
65.28 |
|
|
Apr 27 |
$ 56.99 |
$ 64.83 |
|
|
Apr 28 |
$ 57.06 |
$ 64.64 |
|
|
Apr 29 |
$ 58.58 |
$ 65.84 |
Average
Brent Crude for April:
$ 60.85. |
|
West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
|
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
|
January |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
|
February |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
|
March |
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
|
April |
$ 54.38 |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
|
May |
|
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
|
June |
|
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
|
July |
|
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
|
August |
|
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
|
September |
|
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
|
October |
|
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
|
November |
|
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
|
December |
|
$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Apr 28/15 |
$ 57.06 |
109.7 |
83.7 |
114.9 |
|
Apr 28/14 |
$100.84 |
139.7 |
108.3 |
145.0 |
|
YOY Diff. |
-43.78 |
-30.0 |
-24.6 |
-30.1 |
|
% Change |
-43.4% |
-21.5% |
-22.7% |
-20.8% |
|
|
Commentary: |
|
Crude futures are
currently trading at their highest levels since early
December, 2014. WTI is now approaching a $60.00 bbl
level while Brent has settled in around the mid-sixty dollar
point in recent days. A lower US dollar, a less than
anticipated US domestic crude build and a draw in Cushing
crude inventory levels all contributed to WTI's rise in
trading value. Continued unrest in Yemen, a shuffle in
Saudi Arabian royal succession and the Iranian seizure of an
international freighter all combined to impact Brent
pricing.
Oil
prices in general have risen some 20% in April constituting
their strongest recovery since the sell-off that began in
June of last year. The timing of this week's crude
inventory reductions coincides with the arrival of the North
American spring driving season which further accentuated the
rise in crude futures pricing. This, combined with an
as-of-late weaker US dollar, served to apply upward pressure
on crude futures.
|
Economic Data: |
|
|
The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued April 29, 2015, reported an increase in US crude stocks
of 1,910,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
increased by 1,713,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period.
US
distillate inventories decreased by 66,000 barrels.
Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period
by 265,000 b/d.
US refinery utilization rates increased by 0.1% to
91.3% of capacity.
|
|
|
|
Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
|
|
Crude |
+1,910,000 |
+22.9% |
|
|
Gasoline |
+1,713,000 |
+7.5% |
|
|
Distillates |
-66,000 |
+12.9% |
|
|
Source: DOE April 29, 2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
|