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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
May 13, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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May 2 |
$113.52 |
May 3 |
$111.05 |
May 4 |
$109.24 |
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May 5 |
$99.80 |
May 6 |
$97.18 |
May 9 |
$102.55 |
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May 10 |
$103.88 |
May 11 |
$98.21 |
May 12 |
$98.97 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
$103.82 |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
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$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
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$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
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$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
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$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
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$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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May 12/11 |
$98.97 |
130.7 |
103.4 |
128.2 |
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May 12/10 |
$75.65 |
105.0 |
79.3 |
102.7 |
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YOY Diff. |
+23.32 |
+25.7 |
+24.1 |
+25.5 |
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% Change |
+30.8% |
+24.5% |
+30.4 |
+24.8% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly inventory report,
released May 10, 2011, showed crude oil inventory increases and for the
first time in 11 weeks gasoline inventory builds. Crude oil inventories
rose 3.8 million barrels over last week while gasoline rose 1.3 million
barrels over the previous week. Energy analysts had predicted some
increase in crude inventory levels but expected gasoline inventories to
decline. The inventory data may suggest a softening in U.S. demand for
petroleum products ahead to the peak summer driving season. Market
analysts cautioned that gasoline inventory still remains 16.311 million
barrels below last year's level and 2.677 million barrels below the five
year average. In addition, the second quarter of the year tends to be
the lowest demand period for gasoline during the year.
The weekly inventory report showed a decline in distillate product
inventory of 843,000 barrels. The decline in distillate inventory was
mainly heating oil concentrated.
US refineries utilization slipped 1.1% from the previous week, down to
81.7%.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+3,800,000 |
-0.22% |
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Gasoline |
+1,300,000 |
-7.34% |
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Distillates |
-843,000 |
-6.18% |
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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•
MasterCard reported on May 10 that weekly gasoline demand dropped
0.5 percent from the previous week, 1.1 percent for the past four weeks
versus the same four weeks last year and 2.4 percent from the same week
period last year. MasterCard attributed the drop in demand to the high
price of fuel, with the average US retail price of $3.98 gallon.
• International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its 2011 global oil demand
by 0.2 percent suggesting that demand for gasoline will reduce due to
recent price escalations.
• Petroleum refining operations near the Mississippi River may feel the
impact of heavy flooding in the region. Approximately 13.7 percent of US
refining capacity is located within the area at risk of flooding. In
addition to potential refinery disruptions, barge traffic is facing
restrictions on the Mississippi River which may also reduce refining
operations.
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3. Other:
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The Chinese government raised reserve requirements for banks by
0.5 percent in an effort to reduce borrowing demand and curb inflation
which was pegged at 5.3 percent in April.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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