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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
May 14, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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May 1 |
$53.20 |
May 4 |
$54.47 |
May 5 |
$53.84 |
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May 6 |
$56.34 |
May 7 |
$56.71 |
May 8 |
$58.63 |
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May 11 |
$58.50 |
May 12 |
$58.85 |
May 13 |
$58.02 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
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January |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
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February |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
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March |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
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April |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
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May |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
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June |
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$134.02 |
$67.46 |
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July |
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$134.29 |
$73.80 |
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August |
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$116.81 |
$72.17 |
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September |
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$104.27 |
$79.52 |
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October |
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$76.72 |
$85.19 |
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November |
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$57.44 |
$94.95 |
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December |
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$42.17 |
$91.24 |
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Commentary: |
The apparent initial signs of economic recovery for the U.S. economy
this past two weeks namely in the form of reduced unemployment rates and
at least slightly improved productivity calculations served to jump
start equity markets and stimulated a renewed speculative interest in
commodity markets including crude oil. U.S. government stimulus plan
related multi-million dollar cash injections into the U.S. economy have
assisted the funding of speculative activities in the commodities
markets. Related fears of inflation also have increased investor's
interests in inflation hedging commodity purchases. On the refined
product side, reduced production in the form of both planned reduced
refinery outputs coupled with unscheduled interruptions such as the
recent Irving refinery shut down have restricted domestic output. In
addition, increased demand from Europe has interfered with traditional
import shipments for this time of year with the combined result of an
upward pressure on New York Harbour pricing as of late.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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May 13/09 |
$58.02 |
87.9 |
64.1 |
86.8 |
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May 13/08 |
$125.80 |
125.0 |
107.0 |
137.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
-67.78 |
-37.1 |
-42.9 |
-50.2 |
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% Change |
-54% |
-29.6% |
-40% |
-36.6% |
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1. DOE Report - May 13, 2009 |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over
Year |
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Crude |
-4,700,000 |
+14.0% |
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Gasoline |
-4,100,000 |
-0.1% |
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Distillates |
+1,000,000 |
+38.0% |
Refinery Yield: 85.3% |
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Demand:
See below. |
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2. Demand:
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The AAA estimates that the number
of car travelers during the coming Memorial Day weekend will rise 3%
from last year as lower pump prices now 40% below last year levels
encourage vacationers.
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China, the
world's second largest energy-consuming country increased crude
imports by 14% in April.
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Gas
consumption in April was down an average 2% from the same month last
year and dropped 4% in the first week of May from a year earlier
according to the EIA.
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3.
Economic:
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U.S. retail
sales fell for a second month in a row during April according to the
U.S. Commerce Department.
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Housing
sector sales were mixed with furniture retailers falling .5% and
building material and garden supplies dealers rising .3%.
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Year over
year auto and parts retail sales are 20.7% below April 2008.
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Sales last month decreased 0.5% at clothing stores,
2.8% at electronic stores, 0.1% at general merchandise stores and 1%
at food and beverage stores.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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