MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
May 14, 2009

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
May 1 $53.20 May 4 $54.47 May 5 $53.84
May 6 $56.34 May 7 $56.71 May 8 $58.63
May 11 $58.50 May 12 $58.85 May 13 $58.02
 
  Average Average Average
  2009 2008 2007
January $41.96 $93.06 $54.43
February $38.58 $95.34 $59.42
March  $47.96 $105.62 $60.86
April  $49.82 $110.72 $64.08
May  $55.96 $124.98 $63.54
June   $134.02 $67.46
July   $134.29 $73.80
August   $116.81 $72.17
September   $104.27 $79.52
October   $76.72 $85.19
November   $57.44 $94.95
December   $42.17 $91.24

Commentary:


The apparent initial signs of economic recovery for the U.S. economy this past two weeks namely in the form of reduced unemployment rates and at least slightly improved productivity calculations served to jump start equity markets and stimulated a renewed speculative interest in commodity markets including crude oil. U.S. government stimulus plan related multi-million dollar cash injections into the U.S. economy have assisted the funding of speculative activities in the commodities markets. Related fears of inflation also have increased investor's interests in inflation hedging commodity purchases. On the refined product side, reduced production in the form of both planned reduced refinery outputs coupled with unscheduled interruptions such as the recent Irving refinery shut down have restricted domestic output. In addition, increased demand from Europe has interfered with traditional import shipments for this time of year with the combined result of an upward pressure on New York Harbour pricing as of late.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
May 13/09       $58.02 87.9 64.1 86.8
May 13/08 $125.80 125.0 107.0 137.0
YOY Diff. -67.78 -37.1 -42.9 -50.2
% Change -54% -29.6% -40% -36.6%

 


1.  DOE Report - May 13, 2009

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
Crude -4,700,000 +14.0%
Gasoline -4,100,000 -0.1%
Distillates +1,000,000 +38.0%

Refinery Yield: 85.3%
Demand: See below.

2. Demand:
 
  • The AAA estimates that the number of car travelers during the coming Memorial Day weekend will rise 3% from last year as lower pump prices now 40% below last year levels encourage vacationers.

  • China, the world's second largest energy-consuming country increased crude imports by 14% in April.

  • Gas consumption in April was down an average 2% from the same month last year and dropped 4% in the first week of May from a year earlier according to the EIA.


3.  Economic:
 
  • U.S. retail sales fell for a second month in a row during April according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

  • Housing sector sales were mixed with furniture retailers falling .5% and building material and garden supplies dealers rising .3%.

  • Year over year auto and parts retail sales are 20.7% below April 2008.

  • Sales last month decreased 0.5% at clothing stores, 2.8% at electronic stores, 0.1% at general merchandise stores and 1% at food and beverage stores.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil