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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
May 14, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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May 3 |
$86.19 |
May 4 |
$82.74 |
May 5 |
$79.97 |
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May 6 |
$77.11 |
May 7 |
$75.11 |
May 10 |
$76.80 |
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May 11 |
$76.37 |
May 12 |
$75.65 |
May 13 |
$74.40 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
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January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
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February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
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March |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
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April |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
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May |
$79.65 |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
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June |
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$69.60 |
$134.02 |
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July |
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$63.93 |
$134.29 |
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August |
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$71.04 |
$116.81 |
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September |
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$69.08 |
$104.27 |
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October |
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$75.56 |
$76.72 |
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November |
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$78.31 |
$57.44 |
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December |
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$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
A dramatic drop in crude
trading value of in excess of $11.00 per barrel was observed over this
past two weeks. A combination of the economic fallout from the Greek
debt crisis which triggered a rise in value of the U.S. dollar and
growing inventories of both crude and refined products as reported by
the DOE served to devalue crude market values.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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May 7/10 |
$75.11 |
105.0 |
79.3 |
102.7 |
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May 7/09 |
$56.71 |
87.9 |
64.1 |
86.8 |
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YOY Diff. |
+18.40 |
+17.1 |
+15.2 |
+15.9 |
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% Change |
+32.0% |
+19.0% |
+24.0% |
+18.0% |
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1. DOE Report
May 12, 2010: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+1,900,000 |
-2.1% |
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Gasoline |
-2,800,000 |
+6.0% |
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Distillates |
+1,400,000 |
+4.0% |
Refinery Yield:
88.4% v. 89.6% last week
Demand: See below |
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2. Demand:
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Gasoline demand rose 1.3% for
the week ended May 7 according to MasterCard Spending Pulse. On a
four week rolling average, gasoline consumption is down 0.5% year over
year.
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3. Economic:
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Global investors fretted this past week over an impending European debt
crisis which ultimately appeared to be averted by a joint European Union
and IMF proposal to inject $720 billion euros ($928 billion U.S.
dollars) of liquidity into European financial markets. The crisis
however served to push the euro to a 14 month low, thus strengthening
the U.S. dollar and lowering the trading value of crude futures.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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