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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
May 30, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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May 16 |
$102.02 |
$109.75 |
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May 19 |
$102.61 |
$109.37 |
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May 20 |
$102.44 |
$109.69 |
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May 21 |
$104.07 |
$110.55 |
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May 22 |
$103.74 |
$110.36 |
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May 23 |
$104.35 |
$110.54 |
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May 27 |
$104.11 |
$110.02 |
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May 28 |
$102.72 |
$109.81 |
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May 29 |
$103.58 |
$109.97 |
Average
Brent Crude for May:
$109.18. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
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2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
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February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
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March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
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April |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
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May |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
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June |
|
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
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July |
|
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
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August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
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September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
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October |
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$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
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November |
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$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
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December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
May 29/14 |
$103.58 |
136.9 |
106.8 |
142.7 |
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May 29/13 |
$ 93.13 |
126.4 |
96.8 |
131.6 |
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YOY Diff. |
+10.45 |
+10.5 |
+10.0 |
+11.1 |
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% Change |
+11.2% |
+8.3% |
+10.3% |
+8.4% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude
prices have escalated for the most part over the past two
weeks as continued geo-political tensions in the Ukraine and
Libya and continued DOE reporting of reduced North American
crude inventories weigh heavily on spot market pricing.
Additionally DOE-reported significant draws on gasoline
inventories, coupled with some recent weather (tornado) and
maintenance related refinery complex production
interruptions, are conspiring to exert an upward pressure on
spot market gasoline prices.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy Department
("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued
May 28, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of
1,660,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 1,800,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting
period by 136,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories decreased by 196,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 1.2 percent to
89.9% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+1,660,000 |
-1.2% |
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Gasoline |
-1,800,000 |
-3.5% |
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Distillates |
-196,000 |
-3.8% |
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Source: DOE May 28, 2014 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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