MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
May 31, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

May 17

$96.02
 

May 20

$96.71
 

May 21

$96.16
 

May 22

$94.28
 

May 23

$94.25
 

May 24

$94.15
 

May 28

$95.01
 

May 29

$93.13
 

May 30

$93.61
 Average Brent Crude for May: $103.45.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June    $ 82.28  $96.40
July    $ 87.93  $97.43
August    $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
May 29/13 $ 93.13 126.4 96.8 131.6
May 29/12 $ 90.76 124.6 100.8 125.9
YOY Diff. +2.37 +1.8 -4.0 +5.7
% Change +2.6% +1.4% -4% +5.6%

Commentary:

WTI and Brent crude prices declined 3% and 2% respectively over the past two week period and primarily due to market's reaction to reports of weaker Chinese economic activity.  Alternatively refined product prices escalated over the same period partly due to Memorial Day weekend demand and reduced refining output.  Platts reporting late in the period indicates that larger than anticipated inventory draws on gasoline related to increased demand and increased exports of heating oil to South America have combined to influence product pricing.


Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

  • The US Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued May 30, 2013, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 3.0 million barrels.  US crude inventory levels are at historically high levels.  The crude oil inventory build occurred despite a decline in crude oil imports (-313,000 b/d) and only marginal increases in domestic production (+34,000).  The crude inventory build was opposite to oil analysts' expectations of a seasonal crude inventory decline.  The crude inventory build occurred in three of the five US Pad districts, including the Cushing, Oklahoma hub which is the delivery point for the NYMEX crude contracts.

  • US gasoline inventories decreased significantly (1.514 million barrels) over the previous reporting period with a significant jump in implied demand for road fuel.  This decline in gasoline inventories is consistent with market expectations as mid-market wholesalers draw inventory in preparation for the summer driving season.

  • All US reporting regions, except the US Rocky Mountain zone, experienced the decline in gasoline inventories.

  • Distillate inventories increased by 1.851 million barrels with the majority of the increase concentrate in the Gulf Coast PAD district.

  • Refinery utilization decreased slightly to 86.4% of production capacity.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 +3,000,000 +3.3%
 

Gasoline

 -1,514,000 +9.5%
 

Distillates

 +1,851,000 +2.4%
Source: DOE May 30, 2013

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate