MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 12, 2015

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jun 1

 $ 60.20

$ 64.88
 

Jun 2

 $ 61.26

$ 65.49
 

Jun 3

 $ 59.64

$ 63.80
 

Jun 4

 $ 58.00

$ 62.03
 

Jun 5

 $ 59.13

$ 63.31
 

Jun 8

 $ 58.14

$ 62.69
 

Jun 9

 $ 60.14

$ 64.88
 

Jun 10

 $ 61.43

$ 65.70
 

Jun 11

 $ 60.77 $ 65.11
 Average Brent Crude for June: $ 64.06.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2015 2014 2013
January  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 59.32  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 59.69  $105.14  $ 95.76
July   $102.39  $104.68
August   $ 96.08  $106.49
September   $ 93.03  $106.24
October   $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jun 10/15 $ 61.43 116.7 83.7 117.3
Jun 10/14 $104.35 138.6 106.8 142.7
YOY Diff. -42.92 -21.9 -23.1 -25.4
% Change -41.1% -15.8% -21.6% -17.8%

Commentary:


WTI pricing has again been relatively stable over the past two weeks floating between $60.00 and $61.50.  The rise and fall of the US dollar, speculative investment activity and in more recent days drawdown of domestic North American inventory levels have all been the predominant factors of influence.  While distillate refined products have been relatively stable over the period, gasoline spot market prices have risen steadily in reaction to reduced inventories and increased demand due to improved employment statistics and the onset of the summer driving season.

Economic Data:

Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued June 10, 2015, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 6,812,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 2,939,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.

US distillate inventories increased by 865,000 barrels. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting period by 622,000 b/d. 

US refinery utilization rates increased by 1.4% to 94.6% of capacity.
  
DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 -6,812,000 +21.6%
 

Gasoline

 -2,939,000 +1.8%
 

Distillates

 +865,000 +12.2%
Source: DOE
June 10, 2015

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate