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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 14, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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June 1 |
$100.29 |
June 2 |
$100.40 |
June 3 |
$100.22 |
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June 6 |
$99.01 |
June 7 |
$99.09 |
June 8 |
$100.74 |
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June 9 |
$101.93 |
June 10 |
$99.29 |
June 13 |
$97.30 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
$101.29 |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
$99.81 |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
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$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
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$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
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$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
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$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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June 10/11 |
$99.29 |
123.9 |
95.9 |
122.0 |
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June 10/10 |
$75.48 |
97.7 |
74.3 |
98.9 |
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YOY Diff. |
+23.81 |
+26.2 |
+21.6 |
+23.1 |
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% Change |
+32% |
+27% |
+29% |
+23% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly inventory report,
released June 8, 2011, showed a drop in crude oil inventories, down
4.845 million barrels over the previous week. A drop in crude inventory
was expected but not to this degree, however, crude inventories are
still above last year's levels and the 5 year average levels. U.S.
petroleum refined product inventories continue to build as "implied
demand" continues to fall for gasoline and distillate products.
U.S. refineries operated at 87.2 percent of capacity which is up 0.9
percent from the previous week. The increase is attributed to the
completion of maintenance and switch over of production to summer blend
products.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
-4,845,000 |
+2.1% |
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Gasoline |
+2,209,000 |
-2.0% |
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Distillates |
+810,000 |
-8.98% |
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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•
MasterCard reported last week that based on an analysis
of credit card transactions, gasoline demand was down
2.9% over previous week levels. Demand decline is cited
to be a reflection of the high gasoline prices.
• U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben
Bernanke, stated in a recent speech that the U.S. economy appears to
have lost steam in its recovery. Mr. Bernanke stated there has been a
loss in momentum in the labor market as seen in recent unemployment rate
information which increased to 9.1%. U.S. Department of Labor data shows
job growth continuing but at a much slower pace than previous months.
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3. Other:
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• China's National Development and Reform Commission recently stated
that China's daily consumption of gasoline, diesel and kerosene fell 4
percent last month (May) from April, 2011.
• At a recent OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, member countries could
not reach agreement on the need to increase oil production by 5.87
million barrels per day to 30.87 million barrels per day. This move was
seen as necessary to meet rising global demand. Subsequent to the
meeting, Saudi Arabia announced it will increase production by 2 million
barrels per day to 10 million barrels per day. A Saudi government
spokesperson stated this move was necessary to keep the global economy
growing.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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