MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 14, 2012

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

June 1

$83.23

 

June 4

$83.98

 

June 5

$84.29

 

June 6

$85.02

 

June 7

$84.82

 

June 8

$84.10

 

June 11

$82.70

 

June 12

$83.32

 

June 13

$82.62

 Average Brent Crude for May $111.21. 
 
  Average Average Average
  2012 2011 2010
January  $100.51  $89.44  $78.40
February  $102.26  $88.83  $76.16
March  $106.36  $102.74  $81.12
April  $103.18  $109.67  $84.46
May  $ 95.47  $101.29  $74.14
June  $ 83.93  $96.40  $75.39
July    $97.43  $73.95
August    $86.23  $77.00
September    $86.13  $75.55
October   $86.10  $81.99
November   $96.86  $84.25
December   $98.51  $89.09
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jun 8/12 $ 84.00 122.9 97.0 120.3
June 8/11 $100.74 122.9 95.9 119.9
YOY Diff. -16.64 0 +1.1 +0.4
% Change -17% 0% +1.0% %

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


The U.S. Energy Department (DOE) inventory report issued June 13, 2012 indicated crude oil inventories remained essentially unchanged from the previous week and sit at over 11% above the 5 year average inventory level. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.724 million barrels over the previous week levels. Distillate inventories remained consistent with the previous week.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year

 

 Crude

+191,000 +5.2%
 

 Gasoline

-1,724,000 -6.2%
 

Distillates

-63,000 -14.8%

Overall, U.S. refinery utilization rates increased by 1 percentage point to 92% of capacity. Atlantic Coast refineries were at 84.1% of capacity while Gulf Coast refineries were at 93.8% of capacity.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently issued a report on the potential short term implications of the refinery closures in the U.S. Northeast. It is anticipated that on July 1, 2012, Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery will close. Already this year, ConocoPhillips closed its Pennsylvania refinery, Sunoco closed its Marcus Hook Philadelphia refinery and HOVENSA's US Virgin Islands refinery closed. These refineries provided 40% of the gasoline, 60% of the ULSD, and 45% of heating oil to the U.S. Northeast. Replacing these volumes presents supply and logistical problems. The report states that financial incentives (higher prices) will satisfy the supply concern but the logistical constraints will require time to satisfy, especially ULSD and heating oil product. The report concludes that there may be localized product shortages in some areas and higher prices due to the logistical hurdles of getting product to certain locations due to the lack of terminal infrastructure and pipeline connections from the Gulf Coast refineries. The complete report is available at:
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/nerefining/prelim/pdf/nerefining_activity.pdf

MasterCard, in its weekly SpendingPulse report, stated that gasoline demand fell by 0.5 percent last week over the previous week. Mastercard reports that gasoline demand was down for the third week in a row, year over year. This declining demand is occurring despite falling gasoline prices.


2.  U.S Economic Highlights:
 

 Some items of interest on the U.S. economy:

  • Retail sales for May declined for a second month signaling a cooling in the world's largest economy. Excluding auto sales, retail sales for May were the weakest since May 2010. Cars and light truck sales in May were down from April levels.

  • Monthly employment gains have slowed with the jobless rate increasing to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent.

  • U.S. regular retail gasoline price averaged $3.54/gal over the past week.  This price was 19 cents below the previous month's average price.


3Other:
 
  • Brent crude prices continue to trade at a premium to WTI crude index prices. Brent crude has been trading at a 15-20% premium price over WTI crude for some time which is causing rationalization within the North American Atlantic coast refinery industry.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate