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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 14, 2012
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
June 1 |
$83.23 |
|
June 4 |
$83.98 |
|
June 5 |
$84.29 |
|
June 6 |
$85.02 |
|
June 7 |
$84.82 |
|
June 8 |
$84.10 |
|
June 11 |
$82.70 |
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June 12 |
$83.32 |
|
June 13 |
$82.62 |
Average
Brent Crude for May
$111.21. |
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
January |
$100.51 |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
February |
$102.26 |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
March |
$106.36 |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
April |
$103.18 |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
May |
$
95.47 |
$101.29 |
$74.14 |
June |
$
83.93 |
$96.40 |
$75.39 |
July |
|
$97.43 |
$73.95 |
August |
|
$86.23 |
$77.00 |
September |
|
$86.13 |
$75.55 |
October |
|
$86.10 |
$81.99 |
November |
|
$96.86 |
$84.25 |
December |
|
$98.51 |
$89.09 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Jun 8/12 |
$ 84.00 |
122.9 |
97.0 |
120.3 |
June 8/11 |
$100.74 |
122.9 |
95.9 |
119.9 |
YOY Diff. |
-16.64 |
0 |
+1.1 |
+0.4 |
% Change |
-17% |
0% |
+1.0% |
% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The U.S. Energy
Department (DOE) inventory report issued June 13, 2012
indicated crude oil inventories remained essentially
unchanged from the previous week and sit at over 11% above
the 5 year average inventory level. Gasoline inventories
decreased by 1.724 million barrels over the previous week
levels. Distillate inventories remained consistent with the
previous week.
|
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
|
Crude |
+191,000 |
+5.2% |
|
Gasoline |
-1,724,000 |
-6.2% |
|
Distillates |
-63,000 |
-14.8% |
Overall,
U.S. refinery utilization rates increased by 1 percentage point to
92% of capacity. Atlantic Coast refineries were at 84.1% of capacity
while Gulf Coast refineries were at 93.8% of capacity.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently issued a
report on the potential short term implications of the refinery
closures in the U.S. Northeast. It is anticipated that on July 1,
2012, Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery will close. Already this year,
ConocoPhillips closed its Pennsylvania refinery, Sunoco closed its
Marcus Hook Philadelphia refinery and HOVENSA's US Virgin Islands
refinery closed. These refineries provided 40% of the gasoline, 60%
of the ULSD, and 45% of heating oil to the U.S. Northeast. Replacing
these volumes presents supply and logistical problems. The report
states that financial incentives (higher prices) will satisfy the
supply concern but the logistical constraints will require time to
satisfy, especially ULSD and heating oil product. The report
concludes that there may be localized product shortages in some
areas and higher prices due to the logistical hurdles of getting
product to certain locations due to the lack of terminal
infrastructure and pipeline connections from the Gulf Coast
refineries. The complete report is available at:
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/nerefining/prelim/pdf/nerefining_activity.pdf
MasterCard, in its weekly SpendingPulse report, stated that gasoline
demand fell by 0.5 percent last week over the previous week.
Mastercard reports that gasoline demand was down for the third week
in a row, year over year. This declining demand is occurring despite
falling gasoline prices.
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2. U.S Economic Highlights:
|
Some
items of interest on the U.S. economy:
-
Retail sales for May
declined for a second month signaling a cooling in the world's
largest economy. Excluding auto sales, retail sales for May were
the weakest since May 2010. Cars and light truck sales in May
were down from April levels.
-
Monthly employment gains
have slowed with the jobless rate increasing to 8.2 percent from
8.1 percent.
-
U.S. regular retail
gasoline price averaged $3.54/gal over the past week. This
price was 19 cents below the previous month's average price.
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Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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