MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 14, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Jun 3

$93.45
 

Jun 4

$93.31
 

Jun 5

$93.74
 

Jun 6

$94.76
 

Jun 7

$96.03
 

Jun 10

$95.77
 

Jun 11

$95.38
 

Jun 12

$95.88
 

Jun 13

$96.69
 Average Brent Crude for June: $103.46.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June  $ 95.00  $ 82.28  $96.40
July    $ 87.93  $97.43
August    $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jun 12/13 $ 95.88 128.3 96.8 132.7
Jun 12/12 $ 83.32 122.9 97.0 121.4
YOY Diff. +12.56 +5.4 -0.2 +11.3
% Change +15.1% +4.4% -0.2% +9.3%

Commentary:

WTI and Brent crude pricing continued to escalate between 3 and 4% over the past two weeks primarily due to a perceived steady improvement in the U.S. economy and speculative activity based on the anticipation that this improvement will continue.  Despite same, wholesale prices for refined products remained relatively stable for much of the period due to reduced demand and ample inventory supply.  Positive news concerning the U.S. economy released on Thursday, however, including reduced jobless claims, increased retail sales and improved manufacturing statistics served to exert an upward pressure on both crude and refined product market prices.

Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

  • The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued June 12, 2013, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 2.523 million barrels. The rise in crude inventory levels was boosted by the rise in imports of crude and the decline in US refinery utilization. The weekly report noted a sharp increase in the imports of crude from Saudi Arabia to the US Gulf Coast PAD district.

  • US gasoline inventories increased (2.748 million barrels) over the previous reporting period despite a decline in refinery utilization. Implied gasoline demand declined in this reporting period. The report noted that the build in gasoline inventories was mainly in the Atlantic Coast PAD district.

  • Distillate inventories decreased by 1.163 million barrels with the decrease concentrated in the Atlantic Coast and Midwest PAD districts.

  • Refinery utilization decreased slightly to 87.5% of production capacity.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 +2,523,000 +2.4%
 

Gasoline

 -2,748,000 +9.8%
 

Distillates

 -1,163,000 +1.8%
Source: DOE June 12, 2013

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate