MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 28, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Jun 17

$97.77
 

Jun 18

$98.44
 

Jun 19

$98.24
 

Jun 20

$95.40
 

Jun 21

$93.69
 

Jun 24

$95.18
 

Jun 25

$95.32
 

Jun 26

$95.50
 

Jun 27

$97.05
 Average Brent Crude for June: $103.40.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June  $ 95.76  $ 82.28  $96.40
July    $ 87.93  $97.43
August    $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jun 26/13 $ 95.50 129.7 98.8 135.0
Jun 26/12 $ 79.36 117.4 93.0 117.2
YOY Diff. +16.14 +12.3 +5.8 +17.8
% Change +20.3% +10.5% 6.2% +15.2%

Commentary:

Crude prices fell somewhat over the past two weeks with WTI falling $2.39 or 2% while Brent dropped $4.27 or 4%.  Market concern that the U.S. economic stimulus plan might soon come to an end, weak Chinese economic data and a rising U.S. dollar were the primary influencing factors.  Despite same, refined product prices remain relatively stable, escalating only slightly as adequate inventories and reduced demand influenced wholesale prices.

Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

  • Refinery utilization increased to 90.2% of production capacity.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 +18,000 +2.0%
 

Gasoline

 +3,653,000 +10.0%
 

Distillates

 +1,567,000 +3.6%
Source: DOE June 26, 2013

 

U.S. Economic Highlights:

  • Durable goods orders up 3.6% in May.

  • Sales of new homes were at fastest pace since July, 2008.

  • U.S. dollar up 0.2% against Euro.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate