MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 29, 2012

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

June 18

$83.27
 

June 19

$84.03
 

June 20

$81.80
 

June 21

$78.20
 

June 22

$79.76
 

June 25

$79.21
 

June 26

$79.36
 

June 27

$80.21
 

June 28

$77.69
 Average Brent Crude for May $96.21. 
 
  Average Average Average
  2012 2011 2010
January  $100.51  $89.44  $78.40
February  $102.26  $88.83  $76.16
March  $106.36  $102.74  $81.12
April  $103.18  $109.67  $84.46
May  $ 95.47  $101.29  $74.14
June  $ 82.28  $96.40  $75.39
July    $97.43  $73.95
August    $86.23  $77.00
September    $86.13  $75.55
October   $86.10  $81.99
November   $96.86  $84.25
December   $98.51  $89.09
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
June 22/12 $ 79.76 117.4 93.0 116.1
Jun2 22/11 $ 95.41 120.2 98.9 124.6
YOY Diff. -15.65 -2.8 -5.9 -8.5
% Change -16.4% -2.3% -6.0 -6.8%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


U.S. crude inventories declined slightly this past week, according to the latest U.S. Department of Energy inventory report.  Currently, U.S. crude inventory levels are 12.19% above the most recent five-year average inventory level.  U.S. gasoline increased by 2.078 million barrels, with increases in refinery operating levels the main reason for this increase.  Current U.S. gasoline inventory levels are 3% below the most recent five-year average gasoline inventory level.  U.S. distillate stocks fell 2.279 million barrels with the largest decreases occurring in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The U.S. Energy Department noted that implied demand for gasoline increased by 1.8% over the previous week.  The Energy Department stated that at 8.85 million barrels a day, gasoline demand is 4.5 percent lower than a year earlier.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
 

 Crude

 -133,000 +7.7%
 

 Gasoline

 +2,078,000 -3.9%
 

Distillates

 -2,279,000 -16.4%

Refinery utilization rates were at 92.6 percent, up from the previous week's 91.9 percent.

2.  U.S Economic Highlights:
 

 Some items of interest on the U.S. economy:

  • MasterCard, in its weekly SpendingPulse report, stated that gasoline demand was essentially unchanged from the previous week, however 3.5 percent below previous year levels.

  • U.S. consumer confidence continues to decline with June consumer confidence at a 5 month low.  Concerns over jobs and incomes are cited as factors for the declining consumer demand. 

    •

3.  Other:
 

  • Trade sanctions against Iranian oil production are to begin July 1, 2012 unless Iran complies with demands by U.S. and European countries regarding its nuclear program.

  • Continued European economic troubles and signs of some slowing in China's economy appear to have softened the impact of the oil sanctions against Iran at present.

    •

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate