MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 30, 2010

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
June 16 $77.67 June 17 $76.79 June 18 $77.18
June 22 $77.21 June 23 $76.35 June 24 $76.51
June 25 $78.76 June 28 $78.25 June 29 $75.94
 
  Average Average Average
  2010 2009 2008
January  $78.40 $41.96 $93.06
February  $76.16 $38.58 $95.34
March  $81.12  $47.96 $105.62
April  $84.46  $49.82 $110.72
May  $74.14  $55.96 $124.98
June  $75.39  $69.60 $134.02
July    $63.93 $134.29
August    $71.04 $116.81
September    $69.08 $104.27
October    $75.56 $76.72
November    $78.31 $57.44
December    $73.88 $42.17

Commentary:


Crude futures essentially remained in a mid $70 range over the past two weeks impacted at times by conflicting economic news concerning the health of global economies and in recent days by the potential impact of Hurricane Alex. The realization that Alex would not have a significant impact on Gulf of Mexico oil operations coupled with the release of some less than encouraging news relative to the U.S. economy served to depress crudes prices near the end of the period. Refined product prices and gasoline in particular escalated, for the most part, over the period as concerns over adequate supply for the July 4th weekend holiday pressured spot market prices. Anticipation of increased European imports and the release on Tuesday of depressed gasoline demand statistics served to dampen such price escalation.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
June 29/10       $75.94 99.8 74.3 98.9
June 29/09 $71.49 103.5 71.7 94.1
YOY Diff. +4.45 -3.7 +2.6 +4.8
% Change +6.0% +3.0% +4.0% +5.0%

 


1.  DOE Report: not available

 Refinery  Yield:  N/A
 Demand:  See below


2. Demand:
 

U.S. gasoline demand dropped for the fourth straight week marking a 2% decrease from the year ago period according to the weekly MasterCard Spending Pulse survey released on Tuesday.  On a rolling four week moving average, retail gasoline demand dipped 2.2% vs year ago levels.


3. Economic:
 

The Consumer Conference Board on Tuesday reported that its June Consumer Confidence Index tumbled 10 points, the sharpest drop since February, as Americans continued to worry about jobs and the slow economic recovery.  The index now stands at 52.9.  A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing.  A reading above 100 signals strong growth.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil