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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 30, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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June 16 |
$77.67 |
June 17 |
$76.79 |
June 18 |
$77.18 |
June 22 |
$77.21 |
June 23 |
$76.35 |
June 24 |
$76.51 |
June 25 |
$78.76 |
June 28 |
$78.25 |
June 29 |
$75.94 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
March |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
April |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
May |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
June |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
July |
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$63.93 |
$134.29 |
August |
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$71.04 |
$116.81 |
September |
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$69.08 |
$104.27 |
October |
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$75.56 |
$76.72 |
November |
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$78.31 |
$57.44 |
December |
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$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
Crude futures essentially remained in a
mid $70 range over the past two weeks impacted at times by conflicting
economic news concerning the health of global economies and in recent
days by the potential impact of Hurricane Alex. The realization that
Alex would not have a significant impact on Gulf of Mexico oil
operations coupled with the release of some less than encouraging news
relative to the U.S. economy served to depress crudes prices near the
end of the period. Refined product prices and gasoline in particular
escalated, for the most part, over the period as concerns over adequate
supply for the July 4th weekend holiday pressured spot market prices.
Anticipation of increased European imports and the release on Tuesday of
depressed gasoline demand statistics served to dampen such price
escalation.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
June 29/10 |
$75.94 |
99.8 |
74.3 |
98.9 |
June 29/09 |
$71.49 |
103.5 |
71.7 |
94.1 |
YOY Diff. |
+4.45 |
-3.7 |
+2.6 |
+4.8 |
% Change |
+6.0% |
+3.0% |
+4.0% |
+5.0% |
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1. DOE Report: not available |
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Refinery Yield:
N/A
Demand: See below |
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2. Demand:
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U.S. gasoline demand dropped for the fourth straight
week marking a 2% decrease from the year ago period
according to the weekly MasterCard Spending Pulse survey
released on Tuesday. On a rolling four week moving
average, retail gasoline demand dipped 2.2% vs year ago levels.
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3. Economic:
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The Consumer Conference Board on Tuesday reported that
its June Consumer Confidence Index tumbled 10 points,
the sharpest drop since February, as Americans continued
to worry about jobs and the slow economic recovery.
The index now stands at 52.9. A reading above 90
indicates the economy is on solid footing. A
reading above 100 signals strong growth.
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Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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