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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
June 30, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
|
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June 17 |
$106.36 |
$113.45 |
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June 18 |
$105.97 |
$114.26 |
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June 19 |
$106.43 |
$115.06 |
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June 20 |
$107.26 |
$114.81 |
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June 23 |
$106.17 |
$114.12 |
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June 24 |
$106.03 |
$114.46 |
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June 25 |
$106.50 |
$114.00 |
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June 26 |
$105.84 |
$113.21 |
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June 27 |
$105.74 |
$113.30 |
Average
Brent Crude for June:
$111.95. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
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February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
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March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
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April |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
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May |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
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June |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
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July |
|
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
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August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
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September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
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October |
|
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
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November |
|
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
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December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
June 26/14 |
$105.84 |
138.6 |
106.8 |
142.7 |
|
June 26/13 |
$ 95.50 |
129.7 |
98.8 |
135.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
+10.34 |
+8.9 |
+8.0 |
+ 7.7 |
|
% Change |
+10.8% |
+6.9% |
+8.1% |
+5.7% |
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Commentary: |
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While
crude prices have stabilized as of late,
overall Brent and WTI pricing remains at yearly highs due to
continued geopolitical and military tensions in Iraq and
Libya. Increased refinery utilization and a somewhat reduced
demand for gasoline in North America have facilitated
finished product inventory builds and served to reduce the
upward pressure on prices observed in recent weeks.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy Department
("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued
June 25, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of
1,700,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
increased by 700,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting
period by 445,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories increased by 1,200,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 1.4% to
88.5% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
|
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Crude |
-1,700,000 |
-1.5% |
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Gasoline |
+700,000 |
-4.6% |
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Distillates |
+1,200,000 |
-2.1% |
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Source: DOE June 25, 2014 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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